I don’t know him well enough to say. My guess is that to some extent he does and to some extent he does not.

Michael Kitces told me recently that a good number of the financial planners that he knows are questioning their belief in Passive Investing. That’s obviously an important first step. The other side of the story is that there have been lots of times when I have said that I am getting close to the point at which I am going to get serious about cutting back on chocolate-chip cookies. Thinking about doing something and actually doing it are very different things.

I only have one e-mail to go by re Bill Bengen. He certainly knows that the Passive Investing model has not worked as advertised. His decision to get out of stocks entirely tells us that much. But my sense is that he is still struggling with the question of how dramatic his reaction to this discovery should be. If he is like most other humans, he is probably wishing that time could go backwards rather than forwards, that he could return to those innocent days when he truly and deeply believed that the safe withdrawal rate is always the same number.

I think that we can learn a lot from Bill and I think that Bill can learn a lot from us. Every now and again I will touch base with him just to see where things stand. If there comes a time when we can do work together that helps both us and everyone else, I think that would be great. If it doesn’t happen, it doesn’t happen. In any event, I will of course remain grateful for the help that he has already provided our community. We’ll all obviously be wishing him the best in dealing with the struggles that we all are coping with today. And we’ll all be doing what we can to learn what we can from what we hear about his future decisions and any future changes in his thinking about how stock investing works in the real world.

We’re all lost sheep. My strong hunch is that he knows that much even if he sometimes pretends to know more than he really does because he thinks that is what big-shot financial planners are supposed to do. I question whether it is a good idea to encourage the “experts” to put on this act. My strong belief is that it hurts them and us both. People should of course read the books and pass the tests and gain the experience and all that sort of thing. But they need to hold on to their humility and the other things that make them human. Those words obviously apply not only to Bill but to all who aspire to “expertise” in this field.

Those of us who believe in God should say a prayer that Bill develops strategies that help his clients to the greatest extent that they can be helped. Those of us who do not should wish him the best of luck in all his future endeavors. And we all should pray and hope that there are others out there directing similar positive intentions in our direction. We’re all in need of a bit of saving today. No?

Rob