I’ve posted Podcast #104 to the “RobCasts” section of the site. It’s called Probability Investing.
Investing is a game of probabilities. The popularity of Passive Investing has for many years taken all of the most important strategic questions off the table because using the historical data to examine the probabilities reveals the insanity of the Passive model. Now that more people are questioning the conventional investing wisdom, I have hopes that we will be seeing lots of smart people will be in the days ahead devoting their mental energies to learning about how we can get the probabilities working in our favor. Instead of talking about nonsense (whether it is possible to time the market or not), I believe that we soon will be talking about how to invest effectively in the real world (how best to engage in long-term timing).