The www.ValueWalk.com site has posted my article entitled The Investor’s Scenario Surfer: Part One — Why Long-Term Timing Beats Rebalancing.
Juicy Excerpt: After four years of investing, I have a smaller portfolio than I started with. Only the 20 percent stock portfolio is up. This does not signal that the decisions to go with stock allocations of higher than 20 percent were ill-informed ones. Long-term stock returns are highly predictable. But they are not precisely predictable. There is always a range of possibilities that may turn up. The allocation choices made were reasonable ones, given the valuation levels that applied when the choices were made. In this particular case, the 20 percent stock allocation choice was rewarded. But the odds are that stock allocations higher than that will produce better results over the long term. The key to effective long-term investing is always seeking to have the probabilities on your side and not getting caught up in the emotion that can follow from seeing a strategy fail to immediately generate satisfactory results.