I’ve posted Entry #11 to my weekly Beyond Buy-and-Hold column at the Out of Your Rut site. It’s called The Only Thing More Dangerous Than Market Timing Is Failing to Engage In It.
Juicy Excerpt: You’re arranging a family reunion. Hundreds of people will be invited to the picnic event and many will need to travel long distances to ge there. There will be lots of good food, a magician is being hired to entertain the children and there will be a band playing music for the adults. Expenses will be considerable.
You’ve scheduled the event for February 15 in New York. One family member observes that the odds are strong that it is going to be too cold in February for a picnic, but you pooh-pooh these concerns. “No one can predict the weather with 100 percent accuracy,” you point out. You add: “If I were to look in an almanac and schedule the picnic for a time when the weather is likely to be more suitable, that would be timing the picnic. I know better than to put us all at that sort of risk. I’m going to take the prudent bet here, ignore the historical record of weather patterns in New York and hope for the best. Making predictions about this sort of thing is far, far too dangerous.”