I’ve posted Entry #18 for my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called The Shiller Revolution, Postponed.
Juicy Excerpt: My question is: Why aren’t we all on the case? If such well-regarded figures as Rahiv Sethie believe that market timing could work, why aren’t we all engaged in an effort to learn for sure whether it does or not? Sethie has not done the empirical work needed for him to say for sure. Are there academics doing that research today? How is the work proceeding? Are there newspapers following progress on their work and keeping us all up to date?
We follow developments in the fields of politics and football and television celebrities on a minute-by-minute basis. Learning that market timing works would mean that we could all invest in stocks far more effectively than we ever have before. This one is more important than the results of a football game or a sitcom or even an election. There must be reporters tracking down the latest developments, no?