I’ve posted Entry #22 to my weekly Beyond Buy-and-Hold column at the Out of Your Rut site. It’s called Stock Cycles Make It Hard to Walk the Buy-and-Hold Walk.
Juicy Excerpt: The average of the three P/E10 levels that brought on the first three economic crises is 27.3. The average drop in real value of stock shares is 68 percent. The average 20-year return is 0.7 percent. The average time from bull-market top to bull-market top is 33 years. If we presume that the next bull market will top out about 33 years after the Year 2000 top of the most recent one, the next top will come somewhere near the Year 2033.