I’ve posted Entry #66 to my weekly Beyond Buy-and-Hold column at the Out of Your Rut site. It’s called Recent Stock Market History Has Too Much Influence On Our Thinking.
Juicy Excerpt: The deciding years will likely be the next five. If the Valuation-Informed Indexing model is valid, we will be seeing another price drop of about 60 percent from where we stand today. A stock crash of that magnitude would be a fourth confirmation of the Valuation-Informed Indexing model. It’s hard to dismiss a model that has been able to predict stock returns far in advance for 140 years and for four complete bull/bear cycles.
If stocks perform well for the next five years, the shaken confidence of the Buy-and-Holders will be restored and the Valuation-Informed Indexers may need to go back to the drawing board.