I’ve posted Entry #72 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called What Would It Take to Persuade Buy-and-Holders That Their Strategy Has Failed?
Juicy Excerpt: I would say: “Taylor, can you point me to a study showing that long-term timing does not work?”
And he would say, “Sure, Rob, here are 20 statements from leading figures in the field indicating their belief that timing doesn’t work.”
And I would say: “Thanks so much, Taylor. But I see that all of those statements relate to short-term timing. I agree that short-term timing doesn’t work. Do you know of anything relating to long-term timing? That’s the one re which I have doubts.”
And he would say: “Boy, you reporter types sure are skeptics! You are a hard man to please, Rob. But think I can give you what you need. Forget the 20 statements. Here are 50 statements indicating that timing doesn’t work.”
And I would say: “That’s amazing, Taylor. Thanks for putting in all the time it took to collect those 50 statements. Now here’s the thing. I cannot help but notice again that all 50 statements relate to short-term timing. As you know, I agree that short-term timing doesn’t work and always have believed that. Do you think that you might be able to come up with just one statement showing that there is any reason to believe that long-term timing doesn’t work?”