I’ve added an article to the Safe Investing section of the site titled How to Invest Wisely — RobCasts on Market Timing, True Diversification and Dollar Cost Averaging. Juicy Excerpt: Have you ever considered that the “experts” employed by The Stock-Selling Industry might not really want you to learn how to invest wisely? The academic research [...]
How to Invest Wisely — RobCasts on Market Timing, True Diversification and Dollar Cost Averaging
Published in December 19th, 2011
Posted by Rob in Investing Strategy
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Rob on the Internet
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Rob’s Calculators
Favorite RobCasts
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- I Know More About Investing Than John Bogle (and You Can Too!)
- The Coming Revolution in Investing Advice
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- Market Timing -- What Works and What Doesn\'t
- Passive Investing Is the Most Emotional Investing Approach of All
- When Stock Prices Fall, Where Does the Money Go?
- The Future of Investing
- Fear and Greed and Hope and Love
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- There Is No Free Lunch! Or Is There?
- Predicting Presidential Success Using P/E10
- RIsk Tolerance in the Real World
- Dumb Is Smart, "I Don't Know" Is Powerful
- You Won't Believe the Truth About Stock Investing Until You've Heard it 5,000 Times
- Confidence Limits, Logic Chains and Emotion Waves
- Financial Responsibility Breaks Down When Passive Investing Becomes Popular
- Cash on the Sidelines Often Disappears Into Nothingness
- The How-To of Valuation-Informed Indexing
- Stocks Are Less Risky Than Bonds
- Only You Can Prevent Forest Fires -- And Bull Markets!
- Cash Is a Strategic Asset Class
- Risk Without Risk
- Nine Valuation-Informed-Indexing Portfolio Allocation Strategies
- Why the Stock Market Does Not Set Prices Properly (Even Though Other Markets Do)
- Only Valuations Matter -- Everything Else Is Priced In
- Dollar Cost Averaging Is a Loser Strategy
- The Intrinsic Value of Stocks Is a Secret We Are Keeping from Ourselves
- The Candyland Hypothesis: Why Short-Term Timing Doesn\'t Work
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- My Vision
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Favorite Articles
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- The True Cause of the Current Financial Crisis Is Buy-and-Hold Investing
- Buy-and-Hold Investing Doesn't Work -- These Links Prove It!
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- Stock Panic Up Close and Personal
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- My Beef with Bull Markets
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- Investing Research and the Tricky Tricks Used to Trick You
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Favorite Blog Entries
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- Associate Professor Wade Pfau Has Contacted the Trinity Study Authors re the Analytical Errors in Their Safe Withdrawal Rate Study
- "The Wealth Management Industry Seems Intent on Containing This Discussion for Fear that Clients Might Discover the Emperor Has No Clothes"
- "I Would Never Deliberately Do Something to Hurt Someone's Pride or to Cause Someone to Lose Face"
- "You're Sitting on a Winning Lottery Ticket...I'd Do Anything to Have What You've Got"
- My E-Mail to Yale Professor Robert Shiller, Author of Irrational Exuberance
- Get Rich Slowly Forum Discusses My Google Knol on the Big Fail of Buy-and-Hold
- My E-Mail to Jason Zweig, Author of the Intelligent Investor Column
- My E-Mail to Justin Fox, Author of The Myth of the Rational Market
- "You Use a Simple Price-to-Earnings Ratio to Help People See the Fraud in the Market"
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- "It Appears That I've Inadvertently Stumbled Into the Middle of a Religious War"
- "These People -- Good People -- Have Described Your Comments as "Spammy" and "Obnoxious"
- Bogle Says Valuation-Informed Indexing Can Work
- "My Hope Is to Persuade You to Steer the Indexing Revolution to a More Promising Path"
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- "An Attitude Born of a Profession That Found Much of Its Growth in the Middle of the 1982-1999 Era"
- "Just How Bad Would Things Have to Get Before You Guys Changed Your Advice?"
- My E-Mail to the Virginia Police re the Campaign of Terror Against Our Board Communities
- "I Want to Launch an Effort to Publicize the Ideas on the Internet"
- "Those Investing In Equities Hold Securities Whose Future Earning Power Is Completely Unpredictable"
- "A Lot of Planners Are Starting To Question Their Passive Investing Beliefs
- "I'm Quite Encouraged With John Russell's Results"
- "There Are Significant Risks Inherent In the Passive Investing Approach That Are Not Understood By Most
- "For People Who Like to Take a 30,000 Foot View of Investing, This Is a Very Handy Little Tool"
- "The Future Cannot Be Predicted Based on Historical Empirical Observations"
- "The Predictor Would Be Better Termed a Reporter"
- "There Is Always a Reasonably Diversified Subset of the Market with Below Average PEs"
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- Putting a Human Face on the "Save the Retirements!" Story
- Internet Porn and Other Wrong Numbers
- The Exceedingly Strange Standards of Investing Research
- "Securities Markets Appear to Be At Least Partially Predictable Afterall"
- "The Truth Has a Way of Emerging Eventually"
- Why I Quote Song Lyrics in My Posts
- Financial WebRing Forum Entertains (Somewhat) Honest Discussion of Valuation-Informed Indexing
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- Joke
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- Scott Burns: "The Whole Idea that There Is a New School of SWRs Reeks of Personal Aggrandizement"
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Links That Matter
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- Ten Bogus Investing Truths
- Study by Associate Professor Wade Pfau Showing That Long-Term Timing Provides Higher Returns at Reduced Risk
- Study by Associate Professor Wade Pfau Showing That Valuation-Informed Indexing Beat Buy-and-Hold in 102 of 110 Rolling 30-Year Time-Periods in the Historical Record
- Wall Street Journal Article Pointing Out That the Idea That Long-Term Market Timing Does Not Work Is a "Myth" of Stock Investing "That Will Not Die" Because "This Hoary Old Chestnut Keeps Clients Fully Invested" Even When It Is Contrary to Their Best Interests
- Wall Street Journal Article Pointing Out That" "This Ratio (P/E10) Has Been a Powerful Predictor of Long-Term Returns" and That "Valuation Is By Far the Most Important Issue for Investors"
- Michael Kitces (One of the Bravest of the Good Guys in This Field) Asks: "Who's Really at Risk When Avoiding Overvalued Stocks?"
- Financial Mentor Article Reporting on How Our Knowledge of How to Calculate Safe Withdrawal Rates Has Grown During the First Nine Years of The Great Safe Withdrawal Rate Debate
- Does the Trend Matter?
- Improving RIsk-Adjusted Returns Using Market-Valuation-Based Tactical Asset Allocation Strategies
- A Value Restoration Project Blog Post That Sums Up in Three Paragraphs All You Need to Know to Become a Highly Effective Investor
- Year 20 Annualized, Real, Total Return v. P/E10
- Year 10 Annualized, Real, Total Return v. P/E10
- Valuation-Informed Indexing Always Superior to Buy-and-Hold Over 10-Year Periods
- The Valuation-Informed Indexing Advantage
- What P/E10 Predicted vs. What Actually Happened
- Normal and Valuation-Adjusted Wealth Accumulation
- Valuation-Informed Indexers Can Retire Five Years Sooner
- Following Valuation-Informed Indexing Strategies Reduces Stock Investing Risk by 80 Percent
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- "The P/E10 Tool Could Drastically Change How the Entire Investment Industry Operates and Measures Risk" -- Larry, a Site Visitor
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- "Is There a Way to Turn Saving Into Something Fun? Is There a Way to Make the Thrill (Yes, Thrill) of Saving Equal or Exceed the Thrill of Spending? If There Was, I Bet a Lot More of Us Would Do a Lot More Saving. I Found a Website Where This Basic Premise Is Explored in Great Depth." -- The Great WeiszGuy Blog
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- "He Offers Down-to-Earth But Nevertheless Eye-Opening Insights About the Why and the How of Early Retirement" -- Secrets of Retiring Early Reader
- "Challenges Unfounded Assumptions" -- Bill Sholar, Founder of the Early Retirement Forum (Please See Bill's Blurb on the Back Cover of the Book)
- "Seminal" -- Retire Early Home Page Site Owner John Greaney (Pre-May 13, 2002, Version)
- "It’s Always Good to Read Something New That Challenges Your Way of Thinking." -- Invest It Wisely Blogger
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- "Staying Too Long in a Job Where You Don’t Feel Relevant Takes a Toll, Said Rob Bennett, Who Worked for Years in a Well-Paying Corporate Communications Job Where He Didn’t Have Enough to Do" -- The New York Times
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- "A Respected Author and Commentator, Mr. Bennett has Dedicated Himself to Educating Average Investors to Avoid the Most Common Errors" -- Liberty Watch Site
- "It Is Obvious that Rob, in Attempting to Identify New Safe Withdrawal Rate Strategies...Is Goring Your Ox. If Rob Improves on [the] Safe Withdrawal Rate Methodology, the Implication Is Clear: You Are All, Metaphorically, Out of Business" -- Poster at Vanguard Diehards Board
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- "Rob Bennett, the Author of a Book Called Passion Saving, Thinks the Saving Problem Is Partly One of Packaging. So He Prefers to Couch it in the Language of Freedom." -- The Wall Street Journal
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- "Some of the Most Helpful and Insightful Market Discussions on the Web Take Place on These Pages" -- A Poster at the Safe Withdrawal Rate Research Group
- "Rob is the Only Person I Know (If Only via Message Board) Who has Completely Opted Out of Participation in the Stock Market Bubble. And You Know What? He Has Benefited Immensely from Doing So." -- Poster at Motley Fool
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- "What We're Talking About Here Really...Is Empowerment." -- Wanderer, a Poster at the Motley Fool's Retire Early Board.
- "The Stock Market Valuation Tool on the PassionSaving.com Site...Is Based upon the Principle that Over the Long Term, Stock Market Prices Will Reflect the Ten-Years Earnings Growth of the Underlying Companies. While There May be Blips Here and There, Ultimately Prices Will Return Back to a Common Growth Pattern." -- The Links.com Review of The Stock-Return Predictor
- "Rob’s Arguments in Favor of Value Investing Actually Make a Lot of Sense In a Way That Should Make Any Rational Buy-and-Holder Uncomfortable." -- Pop Economics Blog
- "What I Don't Understand Is How Rob Can Correspond in Such a Sweet and Polite Way -- Yet He Irritates Me to No End!" -- A Poster at the Financial WebRing Forum
- "You Go About It in a Manner that is Catastrophically Unproductive by Adding Missionary Zeal that Inflates Your Importance and Demeans Others. The Whole Idea That There is a New School of Safe Withdrawal Rates Reeks of Personal Aggrandizement." -- Dallas Morning News Columnist Scott Burns
- "Inflammatory" -- The Morningtar.com Site Administrator
- “What Warren Buffett Did Was Essentially Quite Close to What Rob Bennett Has Written.... Though We Often Hear Only His ‘Buy-and-Hold Forever’ Mantra, Warren Buffett Has in Fact Been Cleverly Employing the Equivalent of the Rational Investing Model, Incorporating Long-Term Market Timing Based on Valuation of the Market in His Allocation of Money to Stocks.” -- Investing Notes Blog
- "This Report Offers A Fresh Perspective That Is Rarely Found In Other Financial Literature." -- Secrets of Retiring Early Reader
- "Rob Bennett Makes the Claim That Market Timing Based on Aggregate P/E Ratios Can Be a Far More Effective Strategy Than Passive Investing Over Long Horizons (Ten Years or More.) I Am Not in a Position to Evaluate This Claim Empirically But It Is Consistent With Shiller's Analysis and I Can See How It Could Be True." -- Rajiv Sethi, Professor of Economics, Barnard College, Columbia University
- "Retiring Early Was A Concept I Did Not Entertain. I Was Going to Retire at 65 After Putting in 40 Years. Now I Am Glad To Say That All That Has Changed." -- Secrets of Retiring Early Reader
- "In a Couple of Days, I Had Devoured the Entire Book." -- A Passion Saving Reader
- "FIRECalc May Not Be the Last Word on Safe Withdrawal Rates" -- Former Wall Street Journal Columnist Jonathan Clements
- "A Safe Withdrawal Rate Is Very Dependent on the Valuation of the Stockmarket at the Retirement Date" -- The Economist Magazine
- "It Seems to Me That Some on This Board Feel Threatened by the Arrival of Rob and His Ideas. They Feel a Threat to Their Perceived Elite Status." -- Motley Fool Poster
- "You've Got to Say One Thing for Rob. He Has NEVER Lowered Himself to Ad Hominen Attacks -- Subliminal or Otherwise -- on Any Other Person on This Board. Not Once. Ever. At Least Give Him Credit for That." -- Motley Fool Poster
- "I Have Never Seen Rob Show Incivility. No Matter What. Truly Amazing. Either He Is Really the Output of an Artificial Intelligence Program, or the Man's on the Way to Becoming a Saint!" -- Early Retirement Forum Poster
- "You're the Politest Guy on the Internet. Such a Soft Touch!" -- Jonathan Lewis
- "Props to Keeping Your Cool in the Married with Debt Article. Best of Luck Combating Buy-and-Hold." -- Money Mamba Blogger
- "I Caught Up [at the Financial Bloggers Conference] With a Fairly Controversial Financial Blogger Named Rob Bennett, Who Struck Me As the Nicest Guy Around. There -- I Said It!" Digerati Life Blogger
- "Mr. Bennett, You Are Spot on About Integrating Some Type of Valuation Filter to One's Stock Allocation. Astute Investors Have Incorporated Some Type of "Valuation Timing" Into Their Investment Decisions Since the Beginning of Time." -- Poster at the Psy-Fi Blog
- "I Have Read Everything I Can About Valuation-Informed Indexing, and I Agree With You That Buy-and-Hold Passive Investing Is Extremely Problematic... I Value and Respect the Passion, Hard Work and Research That You Have Put Into This Very Important Issue... I Think What You Are Doing Has Huge Value." -- Carl Richards, Owner of Clearwater Asset Management and Author of the Behavior Gap Blog
- "The World of Personal Finance Blogging Needs More Rob Bennetts. He’s Passionate. He’s Intelligent. He’s Writing Things That Go Against the Grain." -- Financial Uproar Blog
- "His Insights Into What Is Really Going On In The Stock Market Are Quite Compelling." -- Future Storm Blog
- "It Was an Epiphany...Valuation-Informed Indexing Beats Buy-and-Hold Over Most Long-Term Holding Periods at Much Lower Volatility." -- Sam, a Site Visitor
- "I Am Intrigued by Your Ideas" -- Adam Butler, Director and Wealth Management & Portfolio Manager at Butler, Philbrick & Associates.
- "I Read the Book and I Loved It. The Philosophy Resonated with Me. I Am a Believer in Your Concept." -- Dr. Peter Weiss, author of More Health, Less Care
- "If Your Investment Ideas Can Do for Investing What Weston Price’s Ideas Did for Food, You’ve Got Our Attention" -- Owners of the End Times Hoax Blog
- "I Have Looked at His Website and Reviewed His Research and Find It Both Compelling and Completely Logical and Common-Sense-Based" -- Apex, a Poster at the Free Money Finance Blog
- " I Do Agree That If Investors Paid More Attention to Valuation, We Would Have Fewer Boom-and-Bust Cycles.... The Investing Institutions Are Definitely Going to Avoid It Because It Will Affect Their Income. -- Bret, Hope to Prosper Blogger
- "Must Read As Per My Viewpoint For All Value Seekers..." -- Ajit Vakil, Value Investing Congress Member
- "His Approach Is Both Mathematically Rigorous and Easy to Understand." -- Online Investing AI Blog
- "There Is Nothing More Difficult to Plan, More Doubtful of Success, Nor More Dangerous to Manage Than a New System. For the Initiator Has the Enmity of All Who Would Profit By the Preservation of the Old Institution and Merely Lukewarm Defenders in Those Who Gain By the New Ones." -- Machiavelli
- "I Am Not Afraid. I Was Born to Do This." -- Joan of Arc
- "First They Ignore You, Then They Ridicule You, Then They Fight You, Then You Win." -- Ghandi
- "I Am Also Extremely Grateful to Rob Bennett for Motivating This Topic and Contributing His Experience and Encouragement" -- Wade Pfau, Associate Professor of Economics at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, in His Recent Study Showing That "[Long-Term] Market-Timing Strategies Provide Comparable Returns As a 100 Percent Stocks Buy-and-Hold Strategy but with Substantially Less Risk. Meanwhile, [Long-Term] Market Timing Provides Comparable Risks and the Same Average Asset Allocation as a 50/50 Fixed Allocation Strategy, but With Much Higher Returns.”
- "Rob Bennett Was an Early Pioneer in 3rd Generation Modeling by Advocating (Through Various Online Forums) that Withdrawal Rates Must Be Adjusted for Market Valuations Consistent with Research by Campbell and Shiller" -- Todd Tresidder, Financial Mentor Blogger
- "I Am Fascinated by the Growing Body of Research that Revolves Around the P/E10 Ratio...Published at Advisior Perspectives as Well as Independently and in Professional Journals by Numerous Researchers: Robert Shiller, Doug Short, Wade Pfau, Michael Kitces, John Hussman, Crestmont Research, Jim Otar, the team of Mike Philbrick and Adam Butler, Rob Bennett and others." -- Kay Conheady in Advisor Perspectives
- " The Calculators on Your Site Are Great Resources for All of Us. It Still Amazes Me As Well How So Many People Can Say 'Valuations Matter' Yet in the Next Breath, They'll Say That We Should Ignore Valuations" -- John Marlowe, Logistics Analyst at Hess Corporation
- "Rob Is an Enigma in the Personal Finance World. He Has Very Interesting Theories on Safe Withdrawal Rates and Buy-and-Hold Investing Based on Market Valuations. But He Weaves a Tale Which Makes the Stories of Alexander Litvinenko and Gareth Williams Seem Somehow Tame by Comparison." -- Don't Quit Your Day Job Blogger
- "Beyond Awesome" -- Larry, a Site Visitor
Blogroll
- Arbor Asset Allocation Model Portfolio (AAAMP) Blog
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- Bogleheads
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