I’ve posted Entry #86 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called Investing Experts Need to Distinguish Opinion From Truth.
Juicy Excerpt: So it doesn’t really bother me if people refer to my findings on safe withdrawal rates as opinion rather than truth. My findings are the product of mathematical calculations. But they are not the mathematical calculations you would engage in if you believed in the Efficient Market Hypothesis. It could fairly be said that it is my opinion that the market is not efficient that causes my safe withdrawal rate findings to be what they are.
I do object to the double standard that applies re these matters, however. I have seen many references to the Old School retirement calculators, calculators whose numbers are rooted in a belief in the contrary opinion, the opinion that the market is efficient and that valuations thus do not affect long-term returns. I have never seen those calculators characterized as reporting mere opinions. Those calculators are promoted as being the product of science. Those calculators are marketed as putting forward not opinion, but Truth.