I’ve posted Entry #89 to my weekly Beyond Buy-and-Hold column at the Out of Your Rut site. It’s titled The Three Factors That Affect Your Stock Return.
Juicy Excerpt: The factor that determines which return in the range of possibilities will apply for you is the returns sequence. This is a luck factor—there is nothing you can do about it. So you are better off spending your time coming to understand valuations and how you need to change your allocation to keep your risk profile roughly constant. But you want to be aware of this factor so that you will understand why you obtained a return better or worse than the precisely most likely one, which of course turns up rarely.