I’ve posted Entry #93 to my weekly Beyond Buy-and-Hold column at the Out of Your Rut site. It’s titled The Myth of the Black Swan.
Juicy Excerpt: There’s a psychological reason why we want to believe that crashes are unpredictable. If it were true that crashes were unpredictable, those of us who lose money in them are off the hook for having invested irresponsibly and of having lost a lot of money as a consequence. The “Black Swan” explanation for the crash lets us off the hook. Who could have foreseen a Black Swan?