I’ve posted Entry #95 to my weekly Beyond Buy-and-Hold column at the Out of Your Rut site. It’s titled Imprecise Return Predictions Are Better Than No Return Predictions At All.
Juicy Excerpt: Say that you determined that looking at return predictions is not for you because the 10-year numbers are too imprecise. You still would have benefited from examining what the P/E10 level that applied in 2000 told us about how stocks would be performing for the next 10 years. Investors who were familiar with those numbers were not even a little bit surprised by the price crash of 2008. Investing blindly sets you up for emotional upsets and emotional upsets set you up for panicky choices.