I’ve posted Entry #98 to my weekly Beyond Buy-and-Hold column at the Out of Your Rut site. It’s titled Valuation-Informed Indexing Cuts the Risk of Stock Investing by 60 Percent.
Juicy Excerpt: I presumed that the investor starts with $10,000 in his portfolio and adds $10,000 to it each year for 30 years. I also presumed that the investor could earn a return of 3 percent real in a non-stock investment class. I had the Buy-and-Hold investor go with a 60 percent stock allocation. I had the Valuation-Informed Indexer go with a 90 percent stock allocation when prices are low, a 60 percent allocation when prices are moderate, a 30 percent allocation when prices are high and a zero percent stock allocation when prices are insanely high.