I’ve posted Entry #104 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called How Shiller’s Ideas Will Reach the Tipping Point.
Juicy Excerpt: I’ve been saying for several years that the big day is going to be when John Bogle walks to the front of an auditorium and gives a speech containing the words “I” and “Was” and “Wrong.” That would be written up on the front page of the New York Times. Once it is written up on the front page of the New York Times, lots of people who are today afraid to speak up will find enough courage to do so. Momentum will accumulate quickly.
I had hopes when Brett Arends wrote in the Wall Street Journal about The Market Timing Myth, saying “it’s hooey” and “they’re leaving out more than half the story.” That one should have gone viral. But humans are social animals. Everyone would have written about it if they were sure that everyone else would be writing about it. Since they weren’t sure, it didn’t happen. When Bogle gives his “I Was Wrong” speech, everyone will be sure and there will be no holding back the wave.