“Wade Pfau Had His Research Published By a Respectable Academic Journal. That Couldn’t Happen If the Clampdown Were 100 Percent Solid.”

Yesterday’s blog entry reported on an e-mail I recently received from a blogger friend in which he argued that many people get emotional when Buy-and-Hold is criticized because they view it as an attack on prosperity itself and an attack on all that is good and right about America. Set forth below are the words of my e-mail reply:
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Blogger Friend:
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I’m okay with what you are saying.
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I would describe myself as more optimistic. It certainly is true that people FEEL that I am attacking their religion when I attack Buy-and-Hold. I don’t see that as a final position, though. I believe that we are very close to seeing that change.
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Shiller’s book was a best-seller. If the cover-up were 100 percent solid, that would not have been permitted.
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There are 120 people that I quote at the “People Are Talking” section of my site who have said publicly that I am right. That couldn’t happen if the clampdown were 100 percent solid.
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Wade Pfau had his research published by a respectable academic journal. That couldn’t happen if the clampdown were 100 percent solid.
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People are afraid, yes. But many people have a desire to learn and overcome their fears. I see it as a Tipping Point thing. People need to feel SAFE to be able to step forward. We are not too far from the point where enough people will feel safe that we will be able to make amazing gains in a short amount of time.
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Rob:
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I don’t think that what we’re in is anything like a clampdown.  It’s more what Charles Smith says about perception management.  The stock market is a critical component of that management.  We still have freedom speak and to go our own way, but ”the system” won’t cooperate with us, nor will it help us in any way if  we move out of the box.
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The popularity of the various media make this possible–keep repeating the same messages over and over until no one seriously questions anything, they just assume it to be true.  We no longer have a free media either.  Sure the sideshow circuses (reality TV, etc) are always welcome, mainly because they are a welcome distraction from our real issues.  But serious challenges to the status quo don’t get much traction.
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My own thought is that we nibble at the edges, and then when a major event comes along and changes the paradigm, that’s when we step up with the messages.  For example, if you say that under VII you buy in when the PE10 is at a more reasonable level, that means people will have to wait until prices fall dramatically.  In the meantime, it’s effectively a call to inaction.  Post crash however, when everyone has been burned by buy-and-hold, and looking for a way forward, you’ll have an audience.  Right now you’re telling people to get out of an overpriced market, and that isn’t welcome news either to those who sell stocks for a living, or for the millions who live under the delusion that they’ll be able to retire at 40 or 50 with buy-and-hold.

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