Set forth below are the texts of two comments that I recently put to the Goon Central board:
Reality bites, don’t it hocus!?
Reality bites in both directions, Yip.
Wade said those things. You have quoted him accurately.
He also advanced the 45 quotes that I reported on in the article linked to above.
He still believes those 45 things. Even if he didn’t, the fact that he once believed those 45 things would be news with major public policy significance. He held a Ph.D. in Economics from Princeton when he said those things. He is in a position to know the truth of these matters. And yet he believed that there has never been a single study showing that long-term timing doesn’t work or isn’t required for long-term success. A Ph.D. in Economics from Princeton researched this question and that is what he discovered. Even if he changed his mind at a later date (he hasn’t), that would be big news. It would raise the question — How could this be? How could someone who holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Princeton come to believe that there are zero peer-reviewed studies on the record showing that long-term timing does not work or is not required for long-term success?
We all need to know the answer to that one, Yip. Buy-and-Holders and Valuation-Informed Indexers alike. And we will not ever come to know the answer until we give ourselves permission to discuss the question. It is through discussion that we learn. So we MUST permit (and encourage!) civil and reasoned discussion of these matters. There is no other path from the horrible place where we all are today to the wonderful place where deep down in our hearts each and every one of us wants to be tomorrow.
If I win, we all win.
If you win, we all lose.
It doesn’t take me too long to figure out who to root for re this one, my old friend.