I’ve posted Entry #131 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s titled Why My Claims About Buy-and-Hold Sound Strident.
Juicy Excerpt: Experts and researchers and article writers are like everybody else, they want to be liked. Investors want to believe that the phony pumped-up prices we see in bull markets are real because they are counting on those phony pumped-up prices to finance their retirements. So the experts and researchers and article writers learn to keep their mouths shut. They do more than that. To be able to live with themselves, they need to persuade themselves that failing to tell people about the need to engage in long-term timing is not such a bad thing. To be able to persuade themselves of that, they need to close their minds as well as their mouths.
But no one is ever able to really put the thought that price matters out of his or her head. All of the experts and researchers and article writers who are trying to ignore this basic reality face a struggle doing so. So do all the investors listening to the experts and researchers and article writers.
What happens when some fellow comes forward with the numbers?
He hurts people’s feelings. He forces people to hear things they don’t want to hear. He causes people to experience feelings of anger and fear and shame. He delivers a message that comes to be perceived as strident.