I have been sending e-mails to numerous people letting them know about my article on The Silencing of Academic Researcher Wade Pfau by the Buy-and-Hold Mafia. Set forth below are the words of the response I received from University of Siena Economics Professor Roberto Reno, followed by my reply to him:
Thanks for your article. I will have a closer look at Pfau’s paper and pass it to students.
However, I have to disagree on a couple of things.
1) The fact that you mention (long-term stock prediction) is also contained in the enclosed paper by Cochrane (admittedly, the more mainstream scholar around) [My guess is that Reno wrote these words quickly and had intended to suggest that Cochrane is NOT the most mainstream scholar around — Rob] and was published in the Journal of Finance (top in the field).
2) It is not strictly true that there is no research on this. Let me enclose a small example from myself. Here we show that, when properly computing standard deviations, presumed long-term strategy with extra returns are actually as effective as random picks. There are, obviously, many other examples. I just supervised an undergraduate thesis on value investment.
Your article was thoughtful, though, even if I don’t like too much the conspiracy idea. For what it may count, I am not pressured by anyone in my research.