Set forth below is the text of a comment that I put to an earlier discussion thread at this blog:
Another example of you misunderstanding what you read.
I don’t think so, Evidence.
Michael is trying to earn a living. Like Wade Pfau. Like Robert Shiller. Like Rob Arnott. Like lots of us.
The Wall Street Con Men have huge war chests they can put to use destroying people who tell the truth about stock investing. So the people who tell the story straight nearly always pull their punches so as not to find themselves on the wrong side of a vicious and unrelenting smear campaign.
So, yes, he states things a bit softer than I do. But we are delivering precisely the same message. Everything I have said for 10 years now follows logically from the findings of Robert Shiller’s 1981 research. If people were not afraid to speak the truth out loud, there would be HUNDREDS of web sites saying what I say at this one.
The problem is that people are afraid. And, because people are afraid, they don’t say things clearly. And, because they don’t say things clearly, many people don’t hear the message. And, because many people don’t hear the message, it’s hard to make a buck telling the truth about stock investing. And, because it’s hard to make a buck telling the truth, many are tempted not to tell the full truth. And, because many don’t tell the full truth, it remains possible for the Wall Street Con Men to single out those who do and crush them.
When the Ban on Honest Posting is lifted, we will have hundreds of researchers saying what Michael says in his paper. And, when there are hundreds saying what he says, each of those hundreds will feel emboldened to say things more clearly and with more details and with a discussion of more practical implications. And we will then begin achieving a huge number of amazing advances in a very short amount of time.
We are mid-way through a process, Evidence.
We started out not knowing. This con was not a deliberate con. People really once believed in Buy-and-Hold. We have known now for 30 years that there is precisely zero chance that a Buy-and-Hold strategy can ever work for a single long-term investor. But, until the 2008 crash, most of us were afraid to speak up. Now we are getting some people to speak up in a tentative sort of way. Those voices will grow louder and firmer and more assertive over time.
Michael is saying the same thing that I am saying. He is just saying it in a softer way. What’s important to you as an investor is the message. The Efficient Market Theory was a terrible mistake. Buy-and-Hold was a terrible mistake. We need to move on.
I wish you well, Evidence.
Rob
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