Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the Goon Central board:
Hocus, you’ve been predicting the stock market (which of course we know on HocoWorld refers solely to the S&P 500 Index) will drop by 65% within three years. I just wanted to establish a firm date, since we know you to be less than truthful after the fact on various issues. Goes with the territory when you’re a Habitual Liar like Rob “hocus” Bennett I guess!
I believe you made your bold prediction based upon your reading of the Lucky Seven BatSignal™ sometime last year. That would mean you’re saying the crash will occur by the end of 2015. To help you with the arithmetic; 2013 = 1 year, 2014 = 2 years, 2015 = 3 years. And we’ll give you a few months free since I don’t recall exactly when or where you first made your claim, it could have even been prior to 2012.
By the way hocus, I see from the Google if one searches “Stock Market Crash” you’ll find there is no shortage of folks also predicting the same event. Alas, it seems like you not the only person workin’ this prognostication beat so you may not get the attention you so desperately crave even if your call turns out to be correct. By the way, you’ll also find many folks when you do that search saying just the opposite, that a crash is unlikely.
I think it’s fair to say the only thing for certain even in the event your prediction pans out is that if stocks perform somewhat like they have in the past, people holding diversified portfolios of stocks and fixed income commensurate with their risk tolerance and who stay-the-course will do fine. And people who panic and sell at market bottoms will do poorly. Just like what happened to Rob “hocus” Bennett back in 1996 when he panicked and sold all his stocks.
You bailed out of the S&P 500 Index in 1996. In January 2000 you missed the high of 1498.58. But you did miss out on the low in July 2002 of 815.28. Why didn’t you buy? No BatSignal™ clanging for you back then? Again in July 2007 the S&P 500 reached an all time high of 1,526.75. Too bad, you missed out again on all the market gains. But you did miss the downturn of January 2009 when the market dipped to 797.87. Still no buy? Or did the BatSignal™ fail you again. From that low the market rebounded to 1,569.19 in January of 2013. Again, you missed out on the opportunity. The next low? Stay tuned.
Hocus, what makes you think you’ll be able to gather the courage to buy stocks this time in the event your prediction comes to pass? You were to scared in 2002 and again in 2009 when the S&P 500 Index hit lows. Why will the next time, if that next time happens per your schedule, be any different that the previous two times you failed to take action since 1996? You just blowin’ smoke?