Joachim Klement, CIO at Wellershoff & Partners: “I Can Confirm Your Experience With Long-Term Market Timing. It Does Work and We Use It In Our Firm a Lot. The Funny Thing Is That We Gain a Lot of Traction at Small- to Medium-Sized Banks and Asset Managers With This Kind of Investment Approach.”

I have sent e-mails to numerous people letting them know about my article reporting on The Silencing of Academic Researcher Wade Pfau by The Buy-and–Hold Mafia. Set forth below is the text of the response I received from Joachim Klement, Chief Investment Officer at Wellershoff & Partners, Ltd.:

Dear Rob:
Thank you for your email and the links to your blog. They are very interesting and I can confirm your experience with long-term market timing. It does work and we use it in our firm a lot. In fact, our strategic asset allocation is based on our market outlook for the next 5 years or so which in term is informed by reliable predictors of long-term future developments like the Shiller-PE.
The funny thing is that we are here in Switzerland and we gain a lot of traction at small to medium-sized banks and asset managers with this kind of investment approach.
Best regards

I responded:




That’s a highly encouraging report!

Please understand that I come at this from the perspective of a journalist. What I want to see is a lot more discussion of these ideas because it is through discussion that knowledge advances. Yes, it’s true that long-term market timing works today for those who know about it. But it will work better in days to come as we learn more and more.


Thanks for taking the time to share your thoughts with me. You have added a nice measure of cheer to my Friday morning.




  1. The Pink Unicorn says

    Gee Rob, what a surprise. You have someone in an investment firm that tells you that they do market timing in order to beat the overall market return. That is some real hard hitting journalism there.

    What did you expect him to say?

    By the way, I thought you didn’t like those evil wall street con men. I guess since he is from Switzerland, he doesn’t count.

  2. Evidence Based Investing says

    I see you have moved beyond academia as the target of your missives.

    Have you noticed an improved response rate from this new target demographic?

  3. The Deleted plop controbutor says


    I read your post and decided to check up this myself. I was just amazed at what I found. I called 4 different brokers and they all told me that they time the market and can beat buy and hold. Wow, I was just shocked at their claims.

  4. Rob says

    I called four the other day myself and they all told me that this was going to be the time that Buy-and-Hold was going to work out well for one or two long-term investors.

    What of it, Deleted?

    There’s a lot of money in this field. The “experts” will tell you all kinds of garbage to get money to move from your pockets to theirs.

    You know what I think we should do?

    Check what the peer-reviewed academic research says.

    Not what the Wall Street Con Men like to TELL us it says.

    I’m suggesting that we look at the actual research with our own eyes.

    I have a funny feeling that we might learn something important if we did so.

    My warmest regards.

    Rob the Researcher

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