Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to the Goon Central board:
it’s such a hoot that an old book by Robert Shiller constitutes the totality of academic research on finance on that strange little planet known as HocoWorld.
Shiller’s work discredited what came before it.Until something discredits Shiller’s work, his model remains the state-of-the-art model.
In 32 years, no one has found anything wrong with Shiller’s work. His work IS something close to the totality of work in this field. THe work that came before Shiller has been discredited. Work that is rooted in Shiller’s work supplements Shiller’s work. But there is little of that. Russell’s work supplements Shiller. Pfau’s work supplement Shiller. Arnott’s work supplements Shiller. There is not much else. All of the pre-Shiller work and all of the post-Shiller work that ignores Shiller’s findings is discredited. That is the cause of most of the friction. The people who have done discredited work don’t want to acknowledge it. They are more concerned with their own careers than they are with what happens to the investors they should be serving. But it is no kindness to these people for us to let them go on producing work that has no value. They are wasting time and resources. Once we all acknowledge that Shiller “revolutionized” (his word) the field, we all can get back to doing useful and valuable and constructive and life-affirming work. Shiller’s work discredited Fama’s work (in part). The part that was discredited is no longer science. Buy-and-Hold was rooted in the discredited work. Buy-and-Hold once was science but it is not that today. Shiller’s findings did not supplement Fama’s findings. They discredited them (in part). Shiller and Fama cannot both be right. One is right and one is wrong. There is no evidence supporting Fama. Fama’s interpretation of the data was in error. ALL of the data supports Shiller. None of the data supports Fama. Buy-and-Hold has been intellectually dead for 32 years now. All of the fuss is just about when we will get around to burying the corpse. The reason why the Buy-and-Holders fight so hard is that they have no case. If they had a case, people could disagree civilly. But when all the evidence is on one side, the only possibilities are to move on to the new model (the life-affirming choice) or to employ abusive tactics to keep investors from learning that Buy-and-Hold has been intellectually dead for 32 years now. I didn’t cause the problem. The Buy-and-Holders caused the problem by failing to update their model to reflect Shiller’s revolutionary findings. Rob |
The Pink Unicorn says
Rob,
You have been discredited. That is why you have no following and your comments section sits empty. Maybe that is something you should focus on rather than playing the victim all day.
Rob says
Oh, sure. Butter up the site owner, why don’t you?
That’s, like, so totally the right way to go with this, Pink
Take care, man.
Rob
The Pink Unicorn says
If I buttered you up, then I wouldn’t be posting honestly, and I am just not going to do that. Now way, no how. I just don’t want any part of that smelly garbage.
Rob says
You’re the man, Pink. You sound like a fellow who fights for what he believes in.
I knew that there was something about the deep-down you that I liked!
Rob
Hocomaniac says
Happy birthday, Rob!
Rob says
Thanks, Maniac.
Rob
The Pink Unicorn says
Rob,
I just want to make it clear that I don’t promote that GRQ scheme of market timing. That would be misleading all those middle class American’s, costing them millions in retirement dollars. Promoting such a scheme would be a felony and prison time and won’t have any part of that. No sir, no way.
Rob says
It’s not your particular cup of tea — Am I right?
Rob
Rob says
We’re talking about something that reduces the risk of stock investing by 70 percent.
Something that allows millions of middle-class people to retire five to ten years sooner than they ever before thought possible.
Something that brings the economic crisis to an end and ushers in the greatest period of economic growth in U.S. history.
Something that everybody who works in this field deep in his or her heart wants to work on and develop and promote.
That’s why I fight so hard, Pink.
Why do you?
Rob
Trebor Martin says
Larry Swedroe discussing safe withdrawal rates on the bogleheads forum. The Buy & Hold Mafia must be on vacation.
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=124106&newpost=1819805
Rob says
The errors in the Old School safe withdrawal rate studies became public knowledge on the morning of May 13, 2002. Not one of the discredited studies has been corrected to this day.
That’s financial fraud. That’s a felony. That means prison time for anyone who has participated in the felony by aiding the 11-year cover-up of the errors in the studies.
You will be going to prison following the next price crash, Trebor. So will Larry Swedroe. So will the others who have put up posts in defense of Mel Lindauer when hundreds of community members there were expressing a desire that honest posting be permitted. Larry Swedroe at that time posted in SUPPORT of the threats of physical violence and other abusive acts that were employed by the Lindauerheads to block honest posting at that forum.
I am not interested in going to prison, Trebor. Find someone else.
Millions of people’s lives have been destroyed by this 11-year cover-up. I want nothing to do with it. I have been the lead person advocating the quick announcement of prison sentences for those who have put up posts in “defense” of Lindauer and Greaney or who have permitted individuals who have posted in defense of them to participate at their sites. The sooner those prison sentences are announced, the shorter they will be. We do no kindness to the Lindauerheads and the Greaney Goons by acting to lengthen their prison sentences. It is cruel for anyone to fail to speak up in clear and firm and certain terms re this matter.
Jack Bogle’s name is on the forum. Jack should have spoken up a long, long time ago. Jack should have spoken up at the moment he learned that the owners of the board were using it to further a massive act of financial fraud. All responsible and ethical people should have done so. I spoke up in very clear terms and I was banned from the forum for doing so.
I naturally wish you all the best that this life has to offer a person.
Rob
Anonymous says
Everyone has had the opportunity to give their opinions on theories.
The prison talk is silly.
Rob says
It is only the Buy-and-Holders who employed death threats.
It is only the Buy-and-Holders who demanded unjustified board bannings and threatened to destroy any site owners who failed to give in to their demands.
It is only the Buy-and-Holders who advanced tens of thousands of acts of defamation.
It is only the Buy-and-Holders who threatened to get academic researchers fired from their jobs.
Never once has any Valuation-Informed Indexer engaged in such behavior.
The 11-year cover-up of the errors in the Old School safe withdrawal rate studies is the biggest act of financial fraud in U.S. history by a factor of 50.
There are many millions of middle-class Americans who will be suffering failed retirements as a result of this massive act of financial fraud.
All those who have put up posts in “defense” of Mel Linduaer and John Greaney will be at risk be going to prison following the next price crash. Many will be going to prison for a long time. They need to know that so that they can take steps now. Every one of us who cares even a tiny but about these people or about the future of our country has a responsibility to do what he or she can to see that the prison sentences of those who can still have their prison sentences reduced a bit are indeed reduced a bit. To fail to take action in these circumstances is an act of cruelty to these people.
If you think that the circumstances in which these people find themselves are funny, you think that the circumstances in which these people find themselves are funny. I do not. Many of these people were friends of mine in the days before I “crossed” John Greaney by posting honestly on the safe-withdrawal-rate topic.
There is nothing silly about any felony. There are reasons why the people of the United States have elected to make laws insuring that the sorts of people who engage in the behavior we have seen from those “defending” Lindauer and Greaney would go to prison for a long time. It is to protect us from these people. All societies have a right of self-defense.
I naturally wish you all the best that this life has to offer a person, both during the time when you remain out of prison and in the time in which you are serving your prison sentence, Anonymous. Please put me down as one of those who cared enough about you to give the idea of helping you out a bit in your time of need my very best shot.
Hang in there, man.
Rob
Anonymous says
I am happy to consider your points, Rob. Can you please provide the direct links showing death threats, the defamations and the threats made to get people fired. We can then all read those comments to see if they were actually made. I see you referring to these, but have never seen the actual posts. Can you please provide those.
Rob says
Start here, Anonymous:
http://arichlife.passionsaving.com/the-buy-and-hold-crisis/academic-researcher-silenced-by-threats-to-get-him-fired-from-his-job-after-showing-dangers-of-buy-and-hold-investing-strategies/
If you are capable of even a small measure of honesty re this matter, the words that appear at that link will be enough to send you off on a search for the additional information that will answer your every question within a short amount of time.
If you are not capable of even a small measure of honesty re this matter, the thousands of links that I could send you would not have the slightest effect.
I have a funny hunch that millions of middle-class people will be looking for honest takes on stock investing following the next price crash, Anonymous.
We’ll see.
Please take good care.
Rob
Sensible Investor says
There’s one person who is incapable of honesty here and that’s Mr. Rob Bennett of Purcellville, VA.
Rob says
A jury will decide the matter, Sensible.
That’s how our system works.
I wish you well.
Rob