Set forth below is the text of a comment that I posted to the Out of Your Rut site:
Every researcher in this field should be looking at what we see on this thread and reporting on it.
Investing is not only a numbers game.
It is partly a numbers game. It is also an emotions game.
Get the emotions wrong, and you cannot possibly get the numbers right. Get the emotions wrong and you will direct all your energies to telling lies to yourself (and others).
Get the emotions right and the numbers part comes easy.
When Buy-and-Holders elected to ignore valuations, they elected to ignore emotions (all mispricing is caused by emotion). When Buy-and-Holders elected to ignore valuations, they insured that every number they produced from that point forward would be in error.
It’s a mess.
The good news is that, when we fix the error, we transform stock investing into something close to a risk-free endeavor.
The risky thing is the possibility that you might ignore the emotions.
The risky thing is the possibility that you might follow a Buy-and-Hold strategy.
When we bury Buy-and-Hold 30 feet in the ground, we bury investing risk 30 feet in the ground.
The future is bright.
It all starts with a group of us getting together and persuading our good friend Jack Bogle to stand on a stage and say the magical words “I” and “Was” and “Wrong.”
From that point forward, it’s downhill sledding.
We cannot learn anything without accepting the possibility that we did not know it all a long time ago. ALL learning experiences start with a willingness to acknowledge one’s fallibility.
Valuation_Informed Indexing is what Bogle INTENDED to create when he created Buy-and-Hold. I have made Jack Bogle’s boyhood dream come true.
When he is able to work up the courage and grace to say “Thank you, Rob!” , we will all be in a much better place.
And I will shake the man’s hand with great enthusiasm when he stops hating himself for having made a mistake and starts working to learn what he needs to learn to give far better investing advice in the future than he has ever given in the past.
Jack can thank me and move forward or he can spend the remainder of his days covering up a mistake that caused the greatest economic crisis in U.S. history.
I know which path I am hoping very much that my good friend will choose for himself (and for all of us).