Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to the Goon Central board:
Simply put, this objection to the president’s healthcare law is based on a falsehood, and letters that have an untrue basis (for example, ones that say there’s no sign humans have caused climate change) do not get printed.
This is the answer to the question put to me so often over the past 11 years — Are you saying that there is a Grand Conspiracy to keep people from learning what the last 32 years of peer-reviewed academic says?
There is a Conspiracy of Ignorance. And there is a Conspiracy of Silence re evidence that Buy-and-Hold is dangerous.
There once was a sincere belief that Buy-and-Hold was the answer. People were very excited about that finding. They lost interest in pursuing alternatives to Buy-and-Hold. The only interest was in REFINING Buy-and-Hold, which is of course something very different.
So long as the bull market continued, this was not going to change. There was no DEMAND for an alternative.
Since 2008, there is SOME demand. It is not yet strong enough to get every board and blog on the internet opened to honest posting on the research. But there is some demand today and it is growing. It will grow much more quickly following the next price crash.
People have a hard time understanding how this state of affairs could continue for 32 years.
It is because of the phenomenon described in this article. The idea that Buy-and-Hold is DANGEROUS (not just imperfect) has been considered beyond the pale for those 32 years. Many, many people have grave doubts. But they are aware of the Social Stigma attached to saying that Buy-and-Hold is DANGEROUS, not just slightly wrong but WILDLY wrong.
The longer the Social Stigma remains in place, the harder it becomes to violate.
Once the Social Stigma is removed, we will all work together to make progress at an amazing speed.
There is ZERO evidence showing that Buy-and-Hold works. ZERO. It was all a mistake. What happened is that people discovered that short-term timing doesn’t work and jumped to the hasty conclusion that long-term timing is not required either. There has never been even a tiny sliver of evidence that the latter claim is so.
This is not science. This is superstition. Scientific claim can be questioned and can survive the challenges put to them. Superstitions must be accepted on faith or they collapse. Buy-and-Hold is today a superstition, something many people believe in but something for which there is zero evidential support. It is BECAUSE there is zero support for Buy-and-Hold that Buy-and-Hiolders are so unwilling to acknowledge the mistake. Acknowledging a mistake that has been doing damage for 32 years is VERY embarrassing.
The embarrassment gets worse and worse with each day that the Ban on Honest Posting remains in place.
The only way out is tearing down the stigma that blocks us all from engaging in honest and respectful and free discussion of the possible DANGERS of Buy-and-Hold.
The only way out is forsaking superstition and returning to the original idea behind the Buy-and-Hold project — learning what the RESEARCH says about what works in stock investing.