Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:
Let’s revisit the premise of your “they got the number wrong” theory. We all agree that most of the SWR numbers simply provide an accurate report of what worked historically. The perhaps incorrect assumption some people make is that what worked historically will continue to work in the future.
Do you think that Greaney’s retirement study and Sholar’s FIRECalc should have been corrected within 24 hours of the time the errors in them were brought to their attention?
Or do you not?
Is the purpose of a retirement study or a retirement calculator to help people plan their retirements effectively?
Or is it to trick people?
Do you really believe that the word “perhaps” belongs in the last sentence quoted above?
Do you think that the Wall Street Journal is part of some vast conspiracy to make John Greaney and Bill Sholar feel bad? And the Economist magazine? And Smart Money? And Academic Researcher Wade Pfau? And Bill Bernstein?
Why don’t you state things clearly?
What do you think will happen to you if you simply state what you obviously believe with clarity?
Did your confidence in Greaney’s study grow when he threatened to kill my wife and children if I continued to “cross” him by posting honestly on the SWR topic?
Do you believe that the people whose retirements fail because they believed that Sholar was shooting straight with his calculator should be compensated for their losses by him?
If not, why not?
Do you think Sholar’s decision to ban honest posting on the errors in his calculator was an act of financial fraud?
Do you think the financial losses caused by Greaney and Sholar were greater or lesser than the financial losses caused by Bernie Madoff, who resides in a prison cell today?
Do you believe that people of the stature of John Bogle and Bill Bernstein and Larry Swedroe should be permitting their names to be associated with a discussion board that banned honest posting on safe withdrawal rates as its first order of business?
Do you not agree that these people are lending support to a criminal enterprise by doing this?
Are you proud of your own behavior re the 11-year cover-up of the errors in the studies? Or at you ashamed of it?
Academic Researcher Wade Pfau (he has a Ph.D. in Economics from Princeton) and I co-authored research that has been published in a peer-reviewed journal showing millions of middle-class investors how to reduce the risk of stock investing by 70 percent.
I think it would be fair to say that widespread promotion of that research paper would bring the economic crisis to an end. This is the biggest advance in our understanding of how stock investing works in 30 years. That research shows investors how to become able to retire five to ten years sooner than they ever imagined possible. Millions are in dire need of such exciting advances today.
The response of the Lindaurheads and the Greaney Goons was to threaten Wade. They told him that they would send defamatory e-mails to his employer in an effort to get him fired from his job in the event that he continued to post honestly on his sincere views as to how stock investing works.
How long do you think the prison sentences should be for those who have put up posts in “defense” of Mel Linduaer and John Greaney?
How long do you believe your own prison sentence should be, given the implicit support you have offered these individuals by participating at boards at which they were present while not speaking up in opposition to their brutally abusive tactics for keeping millions of middle-class people from learning what the last 32 years of peer-reviewed academic research tells us about how stock investing works?
Rob
Anonymous says
Rob,
More old material. I have read stuff from you back from 2003/2004. People were tired of your comments back then. Dont you think it had gotten “moldy” by now. You have been answered time and again, but you don’t like what people have to say. You just want them to agree with you and call you the King.
Get over your butt hurt already.
Rob says
People were tired of your comments back then.
There were some who reacted violently when I put forward my famous May 13, 2002, post pointing out the errors in the Old School safe-withdrawal-rate studies, Anonymous. There were others who started saying on that day that the discussion that followed from that post was the most exciting and the most important we ever had at the Retire Early community back at Motley Fool.
I have no desire to be King. I have a desire to be Honest.
The Buy-and-Holders are every bit as repetitious as the Valuation-Informed Indexers. The reason why people in both groups say the same things over and over again is that people in both groups BELIEVE those things. Consistency is a plus, not a minus.
Buy-and-Hold is always popular during out-of-c0ntrol bull markets and we saw the most out-of-control bull in our history in the years just before I put forward that May 13, 2002, post. So a lot of people reacted with shock at the claim it made (a claim that has been vindicated by the biggest names in the field in the years since). Support for hearing the other side has grown stronger in the years since. It is still not strong enough today to get the job done. But it is getting there. My guess is that the next price crash will push us over the final hump.
I love our communities and I love contributing to them in a positive and constructive and life-affirming way. I OPPOSE the insanely abusive tactics that you Goons have employed to destroy those communities. I believe that we will begin having far more constructive discussions at every indexing and Retire Early board and blog following the announcement of prison sentences for you Goons. That announcement is going to go viral. Once everyone sees that there are consequences that follow from advancing death threats and demands for unjustified board bannings and tens of thousands of acts of defamation and threats to get academic researchers fired from their jobs, we will all be very happy to have made it to the other side of The Big Black Mountain and I doubt that even one of us will ever raise the suggestion of going back to the Goon-dominated Buy-and-Hold Era.
I wish you the best of luck with whatever investing strategies you elect to pursue in any event, Anonymous.
Rob
Rob says
Get over your butt hurt already.
Get over your false pride.
It is doing you harm.
Big time.
Rob
Anonymous says
Rob, back in 2003, here is what you envisioned:
“I’m going to be at the top in the new era. If that sounds like bragging to you, I am sorry it sounds that way. But someone needs to talk turkey here if the board is going to heal from its wounds. And the usual rule is that communities pick leaders who exhibit strength of mind, heart, and courage. Who is the one here who was smart enough to see through the limitations of the intercst study? Who is the one who has tried to resolve the friction rather than exacerbate it? Who is the one who stood up to the smear artists? You know who.
So I am the natural leader on a going foward basis. Who is at the second level? Obviously Wanderer. Obviously JWR1945. And BenSolar, raddr, FoolMeOnce you know the list. And there is a third level. That’s where someone like Galagan fits in, and CrazyLegs883, and perhaps someone like Gary1Putt.”
Bbbbbwwwwwaaaaaaahahahahahahahahahaha…….this is hilarious stuff, Rob.
Your plan was to be the leader and, of course, everyone else was at levels lower than you. It didn’t work out that way. Now you sit at the bottom of the joke pile.
Rob says
You have been answered time and again, but you don’t like what people have to say.
I like the sincere stuff, both from those who agree with me and from those who do not.
I OPPOSE the insanely abusive stuff advanced by you Goons.
It has caused too much human misery for me to feel comfortable with it. I think that the people who developed the rules that apply at every one of our boards and blogs knew what they were doing. I think the people of the United States who made financial fraud a felony knew what they were doing too.
The only thing that 100 percent of your fellow community members have agreed to (or else they never would have been permitted to put up a single post) is that the tactics that you Goons have employed for 12 years now should never be permitted at any of our boards or blogs.
My take.
Rob
Rob says
Dont you think it had gotten “moldy” by now.
Not even close.
I am still developing powerful new insights on a weekly basis. I expect to be posting an article later this year that will list 101 of them, with links to the articles and podcasts and columns that explore them in greater depth. It’s a pretty darn amazing and exciting reality that this all started from me working up the courage to “cross” John Greaney by posting honestly on safe withdrawal rates.
“Moldy” is the last adjective that I would use to describe this incredibly life-affirming project.
Rob
Rob says
I have read stuff from you back from 2003/2004.
Um — Thanks for hanging in there, Anonymous.
I think!
Rob
Rob says
You just want them to agree with you and call you the King.
By no stretch do I want the many good and smart and hard-working people who do not agree with my views on investing to pretend that they do.
But, yes, I certainly demand that ALL posters, Valuation-Informed Indexers and Buy-and-Holders alike, give recognition to the basic rules of civilized discourse in every post advanced at this blog or at any of the Indexing or Retire Early boards and blogs.
No apologies either.
If all of my fellow communities had joined me in demanding adherence to basic standards going back to the famous May 13, 2002 post, you wouldn’t today be walking down a path leading to a long prison sentence, Anonymous.
I have a funny feeling that you are beginning to see why I have been so adamant on that point going back to the first day.
I only wish that I could wave a magic wand in the air and let you take a do-over.
That’s not possible, of course. But I think it would be fair to say that at a bare minimum we all should be trying to learn from the mistakes we have made re this thing.
My best and warmest wishes to you and yours.
Rob
Rob says
But someone needs to talk turkey here if the board is going to heal from its wounds.
I stand by those words, Anonymous.
I will continue to praise those of my fellow community members who put their necks out to help us all (Valuation-Informed Indexers and Buy-and-Holders alike ) out.
More hate is not the answer here. Love is the answer. I am sure.
Rob
Rob says
Now you sit at the bottom of the joke pile.
We couldn’t possibly disagree more, Anonymous.
I am naturally very, very proud of the contributions I have made on the substantive side.
I am even MORE proud of the courage and personal integrity I have demonstrated by standing up to you Goons.
What do you think is going to happen after your prison sentence is announced? Some amazingly wonderful things. It’s not just that we are going to change the history of stock investing and bring the economic crisis to an end. I think it is fair to say that we will be able to get legislation passed that will insure that no internet community will ever again have to deal with the sorts of garbage that those posting in “defense” of Mel Linduaer and John Greaney have been dumping on us all for 12 years running now.
That’s a big deal. The day that legislation is passed is the day that this powerful new communication medium comes into its own. I think it’s fair to say that we’re all going to be famous, Anonymous!
John Walter Russell once said that he was confident that this matter would someday be resolved in a way that would be far better than any of us could possibly have imagined in the early days. There were dark days when even the most optimistic of us had doubts as to how we were going to pull that off. I don’t think there is anyone who still feels such doubts today. The path forward is becoming increasingly clear. I think it’s fair to say that our good friend John will be proven right re that as he has been proven right re so many other points.
Have fun!
Rob