I’ve posted Entry #173 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called Eight Problems With Shiller’s Prediction of a 2014 Stock Crash.
Juicy Excerpt: Five, Shiller did not specify the size of the crash. We don’t know the precise size. But we know that all earlier secular bears have brought the P/E10 level down to 7 or 8, a 65 percent price drop from where we stand today. We should be telling people that. Many Buy-and-Holders are today holding on to a fantasy that this bull/bear cycle will bring less pain to investors than any earlier one. Responsible commentators should be doing all they can to throw cold water on fantasy thinking of that sort. It is dangerous.