Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
Market timing schemes
This language shows how profound the bias is that you are working from.
Long-term market timing is paying attention to price. Long-term market timing is price discipline.
Exercising price discipline is a scheme?
I know of no other field of human endeavor in which exercising price discipline is thought of as a “scheme.” Price discipline is what makes markets work. Please show me one other market that functions reasonably well and in which price discipline is not widely exercised.
In the event that price discipline matters as much in the stock market as it does in every other market that has ever been created, we should expect the widespread promotion of the idea that exercising price discipline is not required when buying stocks to bring about the collapse of the stock market, resulting in collective losses large enough to bring on the Second Great Depression.
The thought occurs that perhaps we should all be permitted to question this “idea” that the stock market is the only one that has ever been created in which the exercise of price discipline is not essential (or, heaven help us all, is actually a bad thing!).
What if these far-fetched ideas produce the same results in the real world this time that they have produced on every earlier occasion in history in which they were tried, Laugh? I think it would be fair to say that we will all be living in very dark days if that ends up being the case. Tens of thousands of businesses will fold. Millions of workers will lose their jobs. The deficit will double or triple as we try to help out the millions of people left homeless in their old age because they believed that the people pushing this smelly Get Rich Quick garbage might be shooting straight.
I will continue posting honestly.
I naturally wish you all good things.