Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted at another blog entry at this site:
Do you think that Shiller has never read his own research, Anonymous? Shiller was the first person to publish research showing that long-term timing always works. It was the paper that Wade Pfau and I published together that shows that in a direct, practical way. But it was Shiller’s 1981 paper (the paper for which he won the Nobel prize) that showed that this was so in theory.
Shiller is the grandfather of Valuation-Informed Indexing. The entire reason why I took on this job is that when you Goons began attacking me back at the Motley Fool board, I went looking for help at sites that explored the implications of Shiller’s work . I learned that there were none! That stunned me. I saw the huge opportunity just sitting out there for anyone who had the balls to pick it up. And so I worked up the courage to do it myself! The rest is history!
You are right about one thing, Anonymous. You say that Shiller himself does not make a point of spelling out the distinction between short-term timing (which never works, according to the peer-reviewed academic research) and long-term timing (which always works, according to the peer-reviewed academic research in this field). Neither does Jack Bogle. Neither does Scott Burns. Neither does Bill Bernstein. Neither does Larry Swedroe. Neither does anyone outside of yours truly.
I wonder why.
Do you think it might have something to do with the reign of hate and abuse that the Wall Street Con Men and their Internet Goon Squads direct at anyone who makes this very obvious and very important distinction? Do you think your threats to kill family members of anyone who posts honestly on this question might have something to do with this strange reality? Do you think your demands for unjustified board bannings might have something to do with this strange reality? Do you think that the tens of thousands of acts of defamation that you have advanced might have something to do with this strange reality? Do you think that your threats to get academic researchers fired from their jobs might have something to do with this strange reality?
Do you think that the reason why the Boglheads split off from the Vanguard Diehards board when I announced plans to attend the annual meeting and ask Jack Bogle why he doesn’t talk about this distinction in every speech he gives might have something to do with this strange reality?
Do you think that the reason why you threatened to get Wade Pfau fired from his job after he co-published research with me pointing out the importance of this distinction might have something to do with this strange reality?
Yeah, I think so too.
When the Campaign of Terror is brought to a full and complete stop (by the close of business today???), I think it would be fair to say that Jack will be making this distinction in every speech he gives. And so will Bernstein. And so will Swedroe. And so will Burns. And so will thousands and thousands of others. And so of course will Shiller.
And there will of course be no more Buy-and-Hold. There will be Valuation-Informed Indexing instead.
And there will be no more economic crisis.
And we will all be enjoying the greatest economic boom in U.S. history. And the risk of stock investing will be reduced by 70 percent for every last one of us. And we will all be able to retire five to ten years sooner than we ever imagined possible in The Dark Ages of Investing Analysis (The Buy-and-Hold Era).
And you will be going to off to serve your long prison sentence for your multiple acts of financial fraud.
And you wonder why I am such a big fan of the idea of permitting honest posting at every board and blog on the internet!