Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
According to you, they are all lying and only you are truthful.
They are all lying, Anonymous.
Nothing could be more clear. This is OBVIOUS.
Shiller’s book was a best-seller. It was reviewed in all the top publications. He was awarded a Nobel prize for the research reported on in the book. The Buy-and-Holders haven’t changed their investing advice ONE IOTA as a result of Shiller’s “revolutionary” (his word) findings. So OBVIOUSLY they are lying. Obviously they are not telling the full truth.
That doesn’t mean that they intentionally caused the economic crisis. Or that they intentionally caused million of people to suffer failed retirements. Or that they don’t follow Buy-and-Hold strategies themselves.
All the evidence that I have seen indicates that the Buy-and-Holders DO themselves follow the strategies they advocate for others. Which means that they DO to some extent believe in them. If they had zero belief in them, they wouldn’t follow them themselves. Does that not follow?
They don’t have full belief because there is 33 years of peer-reviewed research showing that there is zero chance that a Buy-and-Hold strategy could ever work for a single long-term investor.
And yet they don’t have zero belief either because they cannot bear to have zero belief. They have built careers in this field. And they have seen what happens to those who speak honestly about what the last 33 years of peer-reviewed research teaches us. So they keep it zipped.
They not only keep it zipped when talking to others. They keep it zipped when talking to themselves. They RATIONALIZE. They tell themselves things that they know on another level of consciousness make no sense. Because they don’t feel that they have any other realistic options. Talk about what the peer-reviewed research says and you no longer have a job in this field. These people have families. So they keep it zipped.
BUT THEY DO NO LIKE HAVING TO LIE ABOUT THIS STUFF. THEY KNOW IT IS WRONG AND THEY DON’T LIKE IT.
I’ve documented this over and over and over again. Mike Piper wants to do honest work. Bill Bernstein wants to do honest work. Jack Bogle wants to do honest work. Larry Swedroe wants to do honest work. Wade Pfau wants to do honest work. Bill Schultheis want to do honest work. Wade Pfau wants to do honest work. Carl Richards want to do honest work. Bill Bengen wants to do honest work. Michael Kitces wants to do honest work. And on and on and on.
And millions of middle-class investors very much want to hear what all these people would tell them if they were doing honest work. The relentless promotion of the smelly Buy-and-Hold garbage has caused an economic crisis (the full truth is that it has caused four of them over the past 140 years). We need to recover from it. To recover, we need to teach people the realities. To teach people the realities, we need to permit ourselves to be honest.
So this is going to happen, Anonymous. There is not a thing that you or Lindauer or Greaney or any other Goon can do about it.
We all know that it is going to happen. So our common goal is to make it happen in the least painful way possible. That means making it happen SOON. The longer the delay, the more pain for everyone. Let me put it in personal terms — The longer the delay, the longer the prison sentence that gets handed out to Anonymous. You don’t want the longest possible prison sentence. You want the shortest possible prison sentence. So we are on the same side re this matter, my long-time Goon friend.
There are complications.
That’s ALSO obvious.
If there weren’t complications, we wouldn’t still be talking about this 12 years after the morning in which I put forward my fateful post of May 13, 2002. One complication is that there are millions of people who have standing to bring civil lawsuits because of the long cover-up. Another is that there are a good number of people who have participated in acts of financial fraud and could be on their way to prison. Another is that there are many people who have built careers promoting the smelly Buy-and-Hold garbage and who feel that their reputations will be destroyed if the truth gets out. Another is that there are million of people who really have been taken in by the smelly Buy-and-Hold garbage and who for the time-being are not willing to help out those of us trying to get the truth out because they are suffering from cognitive dissonance.
The complications are realities. I certainly don’t say different.
But the complications don’t change the basic reality that there is 33 years of peer-reviewed research showing that there is precisely zero chance that a Buy-and-Hold strategy can ever work for even a single long-term investor. Complications or no complications, we need to move forward. Consideration of the complications can change HOW we elect to move forward. But it cannot change the reality that we MUST move forward. So we are all on the same side re this matter.
We’re all going to move forward together, Anonymous. There is no other way.
I have said 10,000 times that I will do anything in my power to make the trip forward as painless as possible for all of my many Buy-and-Hold friends. And I will of course do that. But never will I post dishonestly re the numbers that my friends use to plan their retirements. That’s obviously an insane demand and I obviously am never going to give that one two seconds of consideration. We will move forward together HONESTLY. Because we must. There is no other path for us to consider.
You can wait until after the next price crash if you like. I think that’s as dumb as dumb can be. But you clearly do not care what I think about this matter. You have it in your power to wait until after the next price crash. I cannot force you to take positive steps today. I would make it happen today if I could. But I can’t. So that’s that.
But if you are going to wait, then wait, you know? When you continue to put up the same nonsense here, you don’t persuade me to give in to your intimidation tactics. You persuade me of your desperation. You obviously get that at this point. So the sensible thing for you to do if you have made a final decision to wait until after the next crash hits is just to stop posting here.
Again, I cannot force you. If you want to continue to post, I will respond to some of your posts. I will delete some, I will respond to some. If that’s what you want, that’s what you’ll get. But it’s obviously stupid behavior on your part. I am not going to break and there are no signs that you are going to break. We are all going to have to wait for the next crash and then see how things play out then. Is that not so? Can we all agree re at least that much?
I wish you well.
I hope it’s okay that I wish you well. Because I do.
That’s where things stand, you know? Like it or not.
I don’t like it either. But that’s where things stand. We might as well part friends and see where the future takes us.