I’ve posted Entry #192 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called Shiller Makes Some Dubious Calls in His Latest Interview.
Juicy Excerpt: But again I think Shiller goes too far with the humility that comes naturally to him. No one knows anything for sure. That much is certainly so. But the full reality here is that Shiller’s work has helped us to become far better able to predict economic developments than we were before we had access to his research. If it is human psychology that drives stock prices and investor emotions remain out of control (as both the P/E10 metric and the discussions I participate in on discussion boards and blogs indicate to be the case), our economic future is more troubled than those who follow Fama’s way of thinking portray it to be.
There are things we can do today to ease those economic troubles that we will not be able to do if we wait until there is another price crash to try them. I would like to see Shiller spelling out in more detail what his findings suggest re our economic future and what steps we should be taking to steer things in the right direction.
Most investing experts are too arrogant and the few who aren’t have an inclination to be too humble!