Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
Which one would be “cotton candy nothingness”
A) A broad diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds, real estate and cash
Or
B) A plan to get a $500 million dollar settlement
I think it would be fair to say that you take comfort with being aligned with powerful people and I take comfort with being on the right side of the History Train.
There aren’t enough powerful people in the world to persuade me to give up the benefits of being on the right side of the History Train.
And ten-thousand peer-reviewed studies showing where the History Train is headed are not enough to persuade you that people with wealth and power and influence can ever be overcome for the good of the overall society.
We’re like characters in a book around which a Great Drama is playing out.
I didn’t ask to be a character in a book. And I don’t think you did either.
But here we are. The drama is playing out around us whether we like the idea or not.
I am obviously not ever going to be willing to sell out my friends and the larger society to appease the powerful people whom you are trusting to protect you.
And you are obviously never going to be willing to let the harm being done to your friends and to the larger society persuade you to turn on the powerful people with whom you are aligned.
If there were some sort of compromise possible, I think it would be fair to say that your or me or someone else would have pointed to it a long, long time ago.
I’ve tried. I’ve bent over backwards in my efforts to make things appealing for every single person involved.
And you probably would say the same thing coming from the other direction. I don’t think you’ve tried very hard. But my experience with the humans is that people working different ends of a drama like this see just about everything differently.
I don’t see any possibilities that have not been explored. My take at this point is that the drama in which we are all enveloped is bigger than any of those caught up in it. No one knows what to do. I THINK I know what would work. But you appear to not have confidence in the merit of what I propose. And I obviously don’t have confidence in the merit of any of your suggested “compromises.”
So it is what it is, you know?
It’s not like I woke up one morning and said: “Oh, I know what I will do today. I will start a 12-year saga in which I will be banned from 15 different internet sites and thereby will come to co-author research showing million of middle-class people how to reduce the risk of stock investing by nearly 70 percent.” It all happened step by step. I questioned whether valuations should be accounted for in Greany’s study. Most community members felt that the debate that followed was the best we ever had in the history of the Retire Early Community. That made Greaney mad and he elected to burn the board to the ground. That convinced me that I was right and thousands of my fellow community members have supported me in amazing ways over the course of the 12 years and thereby have helped me to discover amazing things about how stock investing works that no one else has written about. And so you felt yourself forced to engage in more and more outrageous acts to keep the word from getting out.
I cannot walk away from the $500 million settlement payout that obviously goes to someone who has discovered such things under such circumstances.
And you cannot walk away with a prison sentence.
And I cannot do anything to be sure of eliminating the prison sentence (I believe that I can get it shortened a good bit but my sense is that that is not good enough for you). I cannot offer a compromise that you will accept because it is not me who will be assigning you the prison sentence. The only trading chip that you care about is not in my possession.
I hope that answers your question. I don’t want to go to prison under any circumstances. For obvious reasons.
My sense is that you don’t want to go to prison either. If I could trade that chip, I would. But I CAN”T. And I certainly am not even going to talk about something that lands me in prison as well. That’s obvious insane talk.
I didn’t go looking for a $500 million settlement. You Goons (with the cooperation of the Wall Street Con Men) forced that one down my throat. Please don’t complain to me now that you don’t fancy the idea.
And please don’t demand that I go back in time and change things that cannot be changed. The things that have happened have happened and it does no one any good for any of is to agree to lie about them. There are Post Archives. Even if I were to agree to deceptive acts here (and I won’t), I would be found out. So that line of thought leads nowhere.
The one good card that we’ve got is that the advance here is so big that it will make the millions of people who will be calling for your head very happy and less inclined to demand justice over mercy. If I were in your shoes, I would be exploring options for playing that card to my benefit.
But I am not you. And you are not me. And, if something like that was going to happen, it likely would have happened a long time ago. Things get harder to resolve with every passing day because with every passing day we see more financial losses as a result of our decision as a society to pretend that the last 33 years of peer-reviewed research doesn’t exist.
If that ever changes, I think that would be great. Obviously.
Do I think it is going to happen?
No.
I once did. I don’t think the odds are with us re that one today.
It makes me sad.
But whachagonnado?
Hang in there, man.
Rob
Anonymous says
This is the one post that really tells everyone who Rob Bennett really is.
There is no one in the investing world, other than Rob Bennett, that would choose Plan B, and that includes Shiller.
So far, plan A is working out for me. In fact, this past year, it helped pay for some home improvements, college education expenses for the kids and a nice vacation. How is plan B working for you Rob? Is it paying the bills?
Rob says
I don’t agree with what you are saying here about Shiller, Anonymous.
I don’t even agree that what you say about Shiller is so for Bogle.
Now I will really blow your mind.
I don’t even agree that what you say about Shiller is so for Anonymous.
Plan B is learning how stock investing works in the real world, sharing it with others and enjoying the huge financial rewards that flow from that. We ALL deep in our hearts want to follow Plan B. There is not one person alive on the planet who does not need in his or her heart want to follow Plan B.
There are problems with following Plan B.
You know well what they are.
Those of us who follow Plan B get yelled at. Those of us who follow Plan B are hated. Those of us who follow Plan B get kicked off of our favorite discussion boards and blogs. Those of us who follow Plan B are limited in the places we can go to discuss Plan B and thereby learn more about it. We are reduced at times to having conversations with Goons like you!
Still, Plan B is wonderful indeed.
Plan B is what journalism is all about. Plan B is what discussion boards and blogs are all about. Plan B is what this country is all about.
We are a country that believes in progress and science and freedom. That’s Plan B. There is no other web site on the internet that makes the case so strongly for why we should as a nation continue to follow the principles that made us great than this one. It makes me very, very, very proud to be able to say that.
I obviously don’t approve of the Goon stuff. I obviously don’t like it that today people who post honestly about the implications of the last 33 years of peer-reviewed research are punished for doing so. But there’s a positive way to look at that aspect of the question.
Say that Bogle came forward in 1981 and acknowledged publicly that Shiller’s revolutionary finding of 1981 showed that there is precisely zero chance that a Buy-and-Hold strategy could ever work for even a single long-term investor. We would all be better off today if things had played out that way. We would not be enduring an economic crisis today if things had played out that way. We would be enjoying the greatest surge of economic growth ever seen in our history. So I obviously wish that things had played out that way.
But if they had, I would not be on a path leading to delivery of a $500 million settlement check sometime after the next price crash. Right?
I could post honestly if that were the way things had played out. And that would be a blast. I wouldn’t have you Goons coming after me. I would make a perfectly fine income. Lots of other bloggers make fine incomes and without you Goons coming after me I would be one of them. So things would be great for me if that were the way things had played out.
But I wouldn’t be in line for a $500 million payday.
No way, no how.
I am in line for a $500 million payday because of the unique circumstances that apply here. Humankind went for hundreds of years without knowing all there is to know about how stock investing works. We learned a number of very important things in the early Buy-and-Hold years. Then Shiller supplied the one big missing piece in 1981. Some powerful people went into cover-up mode and it became impossible for us to move the ball forward for 33 years. Then I found myself in circumstances in which I was able to use the power of the internet to document the cover-up and free us all to live far richer (in every sense of the word) lives than we ever before dreamed possible.
Doing that earned me a payday of $500 million.
It wasn’t easy work. It was very, very, very, very hard work. Harder work than I ever imagined I could do. But I am here. I have been doing this hard work for 12 years now. I am one pass away from getting the ball in the end zone today. I am close enough to that $500 million payday to be able to smell the money.
Is that story so bad?
The story has its bad aspects. But the positives here outweigh the negatives by a faction of 50 to 1. I am positioned to receive a paycheck of $500 million while helping millions of people live better lives. I have managed to do very, very, very well for myself while also doing very, very, very good for millions of middle-class people.
I can live with that.
I don’t like the nasty stuff. I hate the nasty stuff with a burning hate.
But I love the good stuff with a burning love too.
Overall, the story is 50 times more good than it is bad.
I can live with that.
You know that 6.5 percent average long-term real return provided by stocks? That return doesn’t come about by magic. It is the product of our nation’s belief in progress and science and freedom. When you reject progress and science and freedom, you reject what makes our country great. You reject what makes that 6.5 percent real return possible.
I love my country. I love the 6.5 percent average long-term return that our stock market provides. I love my fellow community members. I love financial freedom. I love teaching people how to attain it. I love the Buy-and-Hold Pioneers and their original vision of developing a true research-based investing strategy. I love the internet. I love progress. I love science. I love freedom.
I don’t think that I could say that I love goonishness. But I love people. And we all come with a Get Rich Quick urge planted inside us. So I guess you could say that in a funny sort of way I even kinda, sorta love goonishness. I love our efforts to overcome it and live better lives. That’s why I love the Buy-and-Hold Pioneers, because they did such important work building the foundation for the model that would finally permit us all to contain that Get Rich Quick impulse and thereby reduce the riskiness of stock investing by 70 percent.
I love changing the world in hugely positive ways.
If you want to say that that statement tells everyone who Rob Bennett really is, I am fine with it. I am a journalist. I discover and report truths to help people. I have been given an opportunity here to report one of the most important truths ever discovered in the personal finance field.
I will overcome you Goons. Because I love the millions of middle-class people whose lives you are in the process of destroying. And because I love you too and I know that there is some ember of good within you that hates what you have done to yourself.
My best and warmest wishes to you and yours, my old anti-American friend.
Rob
Anonymous says
There is no one else that follows or believes in plan B, Rob. Plan B is not American. It is insanity.
What you ate doing is not work. Work is when you actually provide value in return for compensation. That is NOT what you are doing.
Rob says
You are afraid of going to prison, Anonymous. Nothing could be more clear.
Wade Pfau studied Valuation-Informed Indexing for 16 months. He determined that it is the greatest advance in our understanding of how stock investing works in the history of personal finance. He was jumping up and down like a kid in candy store as his research revealed to him amazing insight after amazing insight after amazing insight. He was quite properly looking forward to winning a Nobel prize for the peer-reviewed research that we co-authored that shows millions of middle-class investors how to reduce the risk of stock investing by 70 percent.
You and your fellow Goons threatened to destroy Wafde’s career because you had already committed many acts of financial fraud and you knew that, when the New York Times runs a story on the Bennett/Pfau research on its front page, you are you and your fellow Goons are on your way to prison cells.
There’s not a thing that I can do about that. I cannot go into a time machine and erase the acts of financial fraud that you have been engaged in for 12 years now.
I did the best thing that I could do. I wrote to my good friend Jack Bogle and asked for his help with the matter. Jack too is worried about his many acts of financial fraud. So that one didn’t pay off.
Then I wrote to 30,000 academic researchers. Many wrote back and told me that this was obviously a violation of basic ethical standards and asked me what they can do to help. I told them to tell all their friends. That’s what everyone should be doing.
We are all afraid of the Buy-and-Hold Mafia. There are powerful and wealthy and well-connected people who are very, very, very determined to keep millions of middle-class people from learning about the last 33 years of peer-reviewed research in this field. I get that loud and clear. There is no one on this planet who gets that as clearly as I do.
I love my country.
I think my country will work this out.
I personally believe that my good friend Jack Bogle is going to be one of the first to flip following the next price crash. I think the man has good in him. I think the man has a conscience. I can point to a lot of evidence showing that to be so. You point to his support of Mel Linduaer as evidence that the idea that Bogle could ever act ethically is a pipe dream. I see a mountain of evidence otherwise and I refer to that evidence every time I start to feel shaky re this matter. I believe that Jack Bogle is a good man and I believe that he will flip following the next price crash.
If I were to commit felonies today, I would feel very, very bad about having done so after Bogle flipped. I think it makes more sense to continue posting honestly re safe withdrawal rates and re many other critically important investment-related topics. I have never for two seconds considered playing it any other way.
I wish you well.
I can say that much.
I don’t envy you. I don’t want to go to prison and I can fully understand why you don’t want to go to prison either.
But the idea that I should agree to go to prison so that you can keep this massive act of financial fraud going another day or another month or another year possesses zero appeal to me.
Zero.
I would be grateful if you would try to find someone else.
No can do.
It’s not my particular cup of tea.
Really.
Rob
x says
I see your Fincon talk is up on Youtube. How to predict stock returns. Apparently there was no time to mention that you’ve owned no stocks since 1996, let alone your $500 million payday.
Rob says
There was a section of the talk where I described where valuations have been since 1996 and why alternate asset classes have offered better returns at less risk. My discussion of the first few slides got messed up because of a microphone feedback problem. So I can see how there might be some confusion on this point. But that was indeed part of the talk.
Maybe next year I will be able to give the one about the $500 million payday. Wouldn’t that be something?
I have a funny feeling that they might need to move to a bigger room for that one!
Rob
Rob says
Here’s a link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sdAKoBhQGfg
I think they did a great job with that. The feedback thing was obviously a mess. But everything else looks and sounds super.
I love putting together the Ignite presentations. It is a big challenge to get everything down to five minutes. But it really makes me happy to see how effectively it can be done when I spend some time working on it. This way I can point someone new to a five-minute presentation and they can at least be exposed to the high points in a short amount of time.
Very cool stuff!
Rob
Anonymous says
Gee, Mr. Bennett, none of us want to go to prison. We are scared. Tell us what to do. Should we send you all our money, turn over all our websites and plead for your mercy? Will that save us from your wrath? Please don’t hurt us.
Rob says
Should we send you all our money, turn over all our websites and plead for your mercy?
Now you’re getting the idea! I was getting worried for a moment there that perhaps I was being too subtle in my hints.
I’ll tell you what, Anonymous. Do all that and let me know and then we can get together and talk over Next Steps.
Does that way of proceeding not make good sense, given the circumstances that apply?
My best and warmest wishes!
Rob
Rob says
You Goons created this mess, not me.
The hand of kindness remains extended.
But there are limits.
For obvious reasons.
Rob
Anonymous says
But I love people
But you also proudly describe yourself as “the most hated person on the internet”. So is it safe to say people don’t like you?
Rob says
Many people don’t like hearing someone tell them the true value of their stock portfolios at a time when they have been misled into believing that they are worth more than what they really are worth, Anonymous.
All humans are weak.
I eat too many chocolate-chip cookies. I don’t like hearing about diabetes and heart disease and that sort of thing. I would like to be able to just eat all the chocolate-chip cookies I want and feel that I can get away with it. But anyone who tells me that there is research showing that I can get away with that and not suffer any consequences is telling a lie and is not my true friend.
The Buy-and-Holders are liars. They tell people what they want to hear because it’s an easy way to turn a buck. They hurt people in terrible ways by doing so. I want no part of it.
I think it is possible for us all to give honest investing advice and to not have people hate us. Say that Shiller had published his breakthrough findings in 1961 rather than in 1981. If that had happened, Fama would never had made his mistake and the Buy-and-Holders would have focused on valuations going back to the first day. There never would have been a problem. Stock prices are self-regulating when people are able to learn what is in their best interests. So there never would have been a bull market and people never would have been misled about the size of their portfolios. No one would have hated anyone.
The fact that a good number of people hate me is a sign that Buy-and-Hold is a disaster. A legitimate strategy would not make anyone hate anyone else. People hate me because they want to eat more chocolate-chip cookies and I am the one telling them about diabetes and heart disease and they know in their hearts that I am right and so they cannot stand to hear those words.
I don’t even want to stop people from eating chocolate-chip cookies. If people want to follow Buy-and-Hold strategies, it is not my concern. But those people cross a line when there are hundreds of other community members who want to learn how to stay in shape and they don’t permit them to hear what they need to hear because they feel that it makes them look bad for saying that eating six bags of chocolate-chip cookies every day is the key to living a long life.
The Buy-and-Holders don’t like it that I call them out on their lies. I don’t do it to make them feel bad. I do it because I want to help people plan their retirements and I believe that telling them lies about what the research says is a horrible way to do that. We are in a crazy place when no one can tell the truth about stock investing because the lies that are told on a daily basis by the “experts” are so far from the truth that it makes the liars look terrible for just one person to tell the truth about safe withdrawal rates on an internet discussion board.
I think that Bogle would like to be telling the truth. And Bernstein. And Burns. And Swedroe.
I think they will all thank me in the end. I think they feel trapped by all the lies they have already told but that if we were starting fresh they would like to tell the truth. We MUST tell the truth eventually or the entire system collapses. So I believe that we should just start doing it and leave all the nasty stuff behind us.
But there’s always a quick buck to be made promoting chocolate-chip cookies as the healthiest of all food choices!
I get that. I get that people want to hear a certain number of lies and that all marketing efforts contain some untruths.
However, I don’t think the problem is anywhere near as bad in any other field as it has become in the investing advice field during the Buy-and-Hold years. I think we need to bring the ethical standards in the investing advice field up to at least something in the general neighborhood of the standards that apply in every other field of life endeavor. The 100 percent corruption stuff is killing us. Not just our portfolios. It is rotting out our souls too.
The guy who flatters you day and night and thereby wins you over is not necessarily your best friend, Anonymous. Sometimes your true friend is the guy who respects you enough to dare to tell it to you straight even if it means that he loses the sale in the short run.
Bernie Madoff was the toast of the town. Until he wasn’t. How popular is Bernie now that the people he tricked understand why he was telling them what they wanted to hear all those years?
I would rather have one person like me because I tell the truth and help them achieve their retirement dreams than have 100 like me because I flatter them and lie to them to turn a quick buck at their expense and then blame “the economy” when all the Get Rich Quick fantasies fall though yet once more.
That’s my sincere take re these terribly important matters, in any event.
Rob