I’ve posted Entry #208 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called Why I Write Only About Valuation-Informed Indexing.
Juicy Excerpt: In other fields, we learn new things and we move ahead. In the investing field, we learn new things and — we ignore the new things we have learned.
I believe that the reason why we do this is not that investing doesn’t matter but that it matters too much. We cannot bear to acknowledge having made big mistakes in our investing strategies because we know that making big mistakes in this area delays our retirements. So we are in denial about what we learned from Shiller. We aren’t going to acknowledge this mistake until it wrecks us.
When that happens, we are going to realize that we have missed out on 33 years of learning experiences. We will enter a new world, one in which there is no legitimate argument over whether we need to adjust our stock allocations in response to big valuation shifts but only over what tools we should use to determine how big an allocation adjustment is needed in different circumstances.
Anonymous says
You sell yourself short, Rob. You also write about goons, death threats, job threats, everyone else but you lying, $500 million windfalls, prison sentences, etc.
Rob says
All of that stuff is an essential part of the VII story, Anonymous.
The peer-reviewed research has shown for 34 years that there is precisely zero chance that a Buy-and-Hold strategy could ever work for even a single long-term investor, either in this solar system or in any other. So why are there still people talking about it? The answer lies in the items listed in your comment.
Take away the massive act of financial fraud and we would ALL be Valuation-Informed Indexers today. Including my good friend Jack Bogle. Including you. Including Mel Lindauer. Including John Greaney.
What will the downside be for the rest of us to move on to VII once you Goons are safely put away in prison cells? I mean, come freakin’ on.
Rob
Evidence Based Investing says
I am either studying or writing about Valuation-Informed Indexing ten hours per day, seven days per week.
I recommend that you take the Lord’s day off and spend some time with your family.
Rob says
You might be on to something re that one, Evidence.
When I go to Mass I am always sure to bring a pen and a piece of note paper folded up in my pocket to write down ideas for new column entries that occur to me during the services. One time my wife gave me a dirty look when I pulled them out and started scribbling. I think she was embarrassed for me.
Dad loves his work!
Rob
Anonymous says
I am either studying or writing about Valuation-Informed Indexing ten hours per day, seven days per week.
I see about 30 minutes per day of output here. What am I missing?
Rob says
In the event that St. Peter gives me any trouble re that one, I intend to explain to him that I do it all to overcome you Goons.
I have a funny feeling that that one will score me the points that I need to avoid The Hot Place!
Rob
Rob says
I see about 30 minutes per day of output here. What am I missing?
The big picture.
All things will be revealed in good time, my old friend.
I’m working on it! I’m working on it!
Rob