Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
“Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.”
Is your problem that you don’t understand what that means, or that you simply don’t agree with it? Either way, it explains in one sentence your laughingstock status in the online community. Wild claims, supported by no evidence at all.
When Wade Pfau was working with me, he spent a long time searching through the peer-reviewed research in this field trying to find a single study that supported the key Buy-and-Hold claim that it is not necessary to exercise price discipline when buying stocks. He never found one. He went to the Bogleheads Forum and asked if anyone there knew of a single study lending even a tiny bit of support to the key Buy-and-Hold claim. Jack Bogle did not know of a single study. Bill Bernstein did not know of a single study. Larry Swedroe did not know of a single study. Rich Ferri did not now of a single study. Mel Lindauer obviously did not know of a single study.
It’s all a big lie, X.
It wasn’t a lie in the early days. In the early days, it was a mistake. Eugene Fama discovered something of huge importance when he found that short-term timing never works. But Fama did not even test long-term timing. Robert Shiller was the first researcher to do that. Shiller found that long-term timing ALWAYS works and is ALWAYS 100 percent required. If Bogle had walked to the front of a big room within a week of publication of Shiller’s “revolutionary” (his word) research, we would not be in an economic crisis today. But he didn’t do that, did he? And a mistake that is covered up for 33 years is no longer properly termed a mistake but a lie.
I didn’t get Jack Bogle in this situation. He is the one who made the mistake. And he is the one who covered up the mistake for so long that it was transformed into a lie.
I have been Jack’s best friend in the world for the past 12 years. Jack didn’t mean to make the mistake. And he didn’t mean to tell the lie. By the time the mistake was discovered, he had built his entire career around promotion of the mistake-based strategy and the pain was so great that he came to suffer cognitive dissonance over the matter. He lied to everyone who ever asked him a question about what the peer-reviewed research in this field says. But he lied to himself first. When you lie to yourself, it becomes pretty darn hard to tell the truth to others.
Bogle is a flawed human, like all the rest of us. When he is suffering from cognitive dissonance, it becomes the job of all his friends to help him out. Many, many, many others have been too afraid to show their friendship, given the circumstances. Bogle has a lot of money and a lot of power and a lot of connections and he has shown a ruthlessness in making use of them to destroy the career of anyone who dares to “cross” him by telling the truth about what the last 33 years of peer-reviewed research says. I am as afraid of the man’s power and ruthlessness as everyone else. But I worked p the courage to “cross” him by insisting (not asking!) that he behave according to the norms that apply in every field of human endeavor other than the investing advice field. I have shown a love for Old Saint Jack that Old Saint Jack has never once in the past 33 years shown for himself.
I will continue to show that love for him. I will continue to praise him to the skies for his many genuine contributions, contributions that place him second only to Robert Shiller in my list of the true giants in this field. And I will continue to give him a good, swift kick in the butt when he puts forwards words in “defense” of the sorts of individuals who have posted in support of Mel Linduaer and John Greaney.
The same standards of ethical behavior that apply in all fields other than stock investing apply in the investing advice field too. Perhaps not today. But following the next price crash they will. Or else we will not make it. We cannot make millions of middle-class people responsible for their own retirements and then deny them access to accurate and informed and honest reports of what the last 33 years of peer-reviewed research tells us about what works for the long-term investor. I do my good friend Jack no favors by suggesting to him that it is somehow “okay” to post at the boards at which the sorts of individuals who have put up posts in “defense” of Mel Linduaer and John Greaney also participate. That is financial fraud. Financial fraud is a felony under the laws of the United States. That means prison time. I will not bow to the intimidation tactics of my good friend Jack and behave in a manner that would in all likelihood increase the length of the prison sentence that will be handed out to him following the next price crash.
The 12-year cover-up is an extraordinary event. It is the biggest case of financial fraud in U.S. history. I give you that one, X.
My site presents the extraordinary evidence needed to make the case. I put forward a post to the Motley Fool board on the morning of May 13, 2002, pointing out the errors in the Old School retirement studies. Not one of those studies has been corrected to this day. That tells the tale. There are thousands of articles at this site showing how the 12-year cover-up was carried out and maintained. Anyone who wants to know why we are in an economic crisis today has the material he or she needs to come to a full understanding of the matter available for his or her consideration. It is my job as a journalist to provide that material and I have done so.
Money and power and influence corrupt human beings. That story is as old as the human race.
The Wall Street Con Men pushing their smelly Buy-and-Hold “strategies” have a LOT of money and power and influence at their disposal. They have spread a LOT of corruption. And there are now millions of people suffering very, very serious consequences as a result.
Following the next price crash, enough of us will work up the courage to stand up to them and to get the Old School SWR studies corrected. From that point forward, it will be easy sailing. We will bring the economic crisis to an end and bring on the greatest period of economic growth in U.S. history.
Or we won’t.
If we don’t, we will all go down together. That would make me very, very, very sad.
But if that sad turn of events plays out before us I will at least have the small consolation of being able to say that I gave this thing my best possible shot despite the mountain of resistance that I faced from you Goons and from the Wall Street Con Men who support and encourage you.
I can do no more and I can do no less.
I naturally wish you all the best things that this life has to offer a person regardless of what investing strategies you elect to pursue.