Set forth below is the text of a comment recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
The difference is that Todd states his opinions and they are just that. The rest of us have opinions as well. With you, there is a strong agenda and you want to be the center of attention, have everyone agree with you and then to be considered some kind of financial expert to the level of someone like Bill, Jack, etc. the fact remains that you have been proven wrong time and again and this has resulted in your display of ongoing bad behavior. This behavior has been mentioned time and again, yet you persist. As such, there has been no choice but to deal with you in order to restore some level of community versus have each site filled with “hocomania”.
People have tried to reason with you, but that has never worked. You are looking for the whole world to change, when perhaps you should consider what you are doing wrong.
Anonymous says
It looks like you were given words of wisdom, Rob. Perhaps you should start listening.
Rob says
I am indeed looking for the whole world to change, Anonymous.
When you combine Shiller’s 1981 finding with what the Buy-and-Holders came up with before him, we have it all. We now have what the Buy-and-Holders were trying to build when they started out.
We just need to work up the courage to start spreading the word to every investor alive on the planet today.
I don’t want to start listening to people trying to intimidate me into silence. I want everyone who has been intimidated into silence to listen to me and to work up the courage to speak out.
I see it as a win/win/win/win/win. For every single person involved. Including you Goons.
We will have to wait and see how things go. I remain optimistic. I love my country.
I wish you all good things.
Rob
Rob says
I only wish that someone had worked up the courage to stand firm before I showed up on the scene.
Then I would not have been put through any of this garbage.
And you wouldn’t be going to prison.
And the millions of middle-class Americans would not be living through an economic crisis or on the path to experiencing failed retirements.
Again — a win/win/win/win/win.
We are getting there.
It it taking a LOT longer than I would like it to take or even than I ever imagined it was possible it could take. But I do believe that we are making slow progress.
It is a process that needs to play itself out for us all to move from the darkness we are experiencing today to the other side of The Big Black Mountain, where we will all get to enjoy the biggest surge of economic growth in our history.
Oh, what a terrible, terrible man I am to want to bring on such a thing!
Hang in there, man. It gets better. A LOT better.
Rob
x says
“But I do believe that we are making slow progress.”
Progress isn’t a matter of belief. It’s either demonstrable, or it doesn’t exist. Of course we all know you claim ownership of Wade’s paper. But that was a few years ago. What demonstrable progress have you made since then?
Rob says
Every honest post that I put forward is a victory for Valuation-Informed Indexing, X. Each one shows that I have confidence in what the peer-reviewed research says and that I have confidence that the country that I love will come in time to enforce its laws against financial fraud.
Every intimidation post that you put forward is a defeat for Buy-and-Hold. Each one shows that you lack confidence that a pure Get Rich Quick approach can ever work for even a single long-term investor.
Had the laws of the United States been enforced, we would have as a society gradually made the transition from Buy-and-Hold to Valuation-Informed Indexing beginning in 1981. The problem came about because the Wall Street Con Men just have too darn much money and money translates into power and they were tempted to use their power to overcome the laws that govern the rest of us. So we are in the process of doing it this other way instead.
Today we have huge incentives for promoting Get Rich Quick strategies and huge disincentives for telling people what the peer-revewed research of the past 34 years says. We need to flip that. We need to announce prison sentences for those who have committed financial fraud and large financial awards for those who have stood up to you Goons. Then everything will flip very quickly and all will be good.
Are we closer to that today than we were on the day that Wade flipped?
We certainly are. Every day we are closer to seeing the next crash. That’s the event that will get us over the hill. Jack Bogle did not start out wanting to bring on the Second Great Depression. He is trapped. He will come to a better understanding of the nature of the trap in which he finds himself when we go into the Second Great Depression. When Jack flips, you Goons will flip and the bad side of this will all be behind us.
Or so Rob Bennett sincerely believes, you know?
I am not God. I could be wrong. Time will tell the tale.
That’s what I believe. I feel bound in conscience to tell you what I believe because the length of your prison sentence depends on what you do between now and the crash. I don’t expect you to come clean before the crash. But I sure feel bound to say whatever words I can say that increase the odds of you choosing that option even a tiny little bit.
After that, it is out of my hands. I am going to do what I can to get us all back on a good track. I am not going to fret too much about things that are out of my sphere of influence. Because it serves no good purpose to worry too much about things that are out of your control.
That’s where I am coming from. I hope that helps you understand a tiny bit better.
My best wishes to you.
Rob
Anonymous says
So you make more posts to gain more confidence. Sounds like you you are doing all of this just to try to make yourself feel better.
Rob says
I make more posts because I want the entire nation to be able to come to terms with what we have done to ourselves, Anonymous.
Prior to 1981, we did not know how stock investing worked. So it was not the same thing. But Buy-and-Hold caused HUGE amounts of human suffering in those years. Buy-and-Hold caused the Great Depression. Buy-and-Hold caused the stagflation of the 1970s. And on and on.
Now we are free. Now we know intellectually how to reduce the risk of stock investing by 70 percent while being able to retire five to ten years sooner than we ever before thought possible. We are in Investor Heaven.
All of that is done. We will of course build on the ideas over the coming decades. But the case that VII is superior has been proven 500 times over. No one has ever put forward even a tiny sliver of support for Buy-and-Hold while the entire historical record supports VII. Gee, I wonder which is the better choice!
We are free intellectually but we are not free in a practical sense. The Buy-and-Holders were shocked to learn that they had gotten it wrong. They suffered cognitive dissonance. Eventually, they went into cover-up mode. They destroyed more and more lives. Now they have destroyed so many lives that they cannot bear the thought of ever coming clean.
I am not a prosecutor. I cannot send you to prison. If I could, I would. By sending you to prison today, I would be shortening your prison term. I would be doing you a favor. But I do not possess that power. So that’s out.
I am a journalist. So I am doing what journalists do. I report here on my conversations with Goons. These conversations have historical value.
Most people today hate, hate, hate talking about the Goon problem. Lots of people express doubts re various aspects of Buy-and-Hold. But talking about the Goon problem scares them to death. My wife is in that camp. “I don’t want to hear any more about the Goons!” she says. She is not a Buy-and-Holder. But she is definitely a non-Goon-talker-abouter.
So is Todd Tresidder. He agrees with me on investing. But when I put a post to his article on SWRs describing how you Goons kept millions of investors from learning about the errors in the Greaney study, he called me on the phone and asked that I not talk about that stuff. I wonder why.
The stuff we are afraid to talk about is the stuff we most need to talk about!
Get Rich Quick strategies hurt people. You Goons are hurting. The point of investing analysis is to help people. We need to explain to people how Buy-and-Hold does the opposite of what investing analysis is supposed to do.
Say that doctors took a vow never to tell patients stuff that they did not want to hear. Patients would come in 100 pounds overweight and they would say “you look wonderful” because they knew that that was a good way to get their patients to like them and pay them more money. If doctors worked that way, the field of medicine would be as corrupt as the investing advice field has become in the Buy-and-Hold Era.
I am taking it the other way. I fell in love with Buy-and-Hold once upon a time because I liked it that they rooted their stuff in peer-reviewed research. We need to take it another step. It’s not enough to do the research that shows what works. We need to report on what the research says HONESTLY. That’s the site project.
I can point out the error in Greaney’s retirement study in five minutes. In an ideal world, that’s all it would take. In the real world, that didn’t get the job done. Perhaps you’ve noticed.
So I am putting these articles up about the Conversations with Goons. Each one makes at least one important point, some make lots of them. People are not eating them up today. I noticed that. You know what? If we want to move ahead in this field, we are all going to need to start to eat this stuff up. The Bennett/Pfau research shows that we can lower stock investing risk by avoiding Buy-and-Hold/Get Rich Quick strategies. The Conversations with Goons posts explore this reality from every possible angle.
If we get smart, we all get to enjoy the greatest surge in economic growth in U.S. history. I like that idea a lot. Good for us!
If we remain too fearful to overcome the ignorance we all suffered from prior to 1981, we all go down together. I hate that one! Hate it, hate it, hate it! But you know what? I cannot by myself get us on the right track. I need help from people like Jack Bogle and Wade Pfau and Robert Shiller and Motley Fool and on and on and on.
If I get that help following the crash, that will be super groovy.
If I don’t, I will be wearing a sad face.
Does that help?
I have a high level of confidence. I am not posting to bolster my confidence. I am posting to TELL THE STORY THAT NEEDS TO BE TOLD.
It is a great story, a very life-affirming story. But there are rich and powerful and corrupt people who do not want it to get out. Yikes!
I’m telling it anyway.
I’m funny that way. Every act of intimidation makes me more determined to get the story out, not less. It’s a journalism-in-the-blood thing.
I naturally wish you the best of luck in all your future life endeavors, my long-time Goon friend.
Rob
Anonymous says
” I cannot send you to prison. If I could, I would.”
Occasionally you slip and let the true Rob come through. This is the face under the goofy mask. The face of a Fascist very serious would-be torturer and dungeon-master. Your dream is a world where all are forced to bow to your will. I can only imagine what kind of bizarre family dynamics that translates two around the HocoHovel. I guess it depends on how much you let remain Walter Mitty fantasy, versus how much you actually act out your innermost desire.
Rob says
Please mark me down as favoring enforcement of the laws against financial fraud, Anonymous.
You would be a lot better off today if you were prosecuted soon after you committed your first act of financial fraud. Prison sentences come to an end. You would be on your way to freedom. By stretching this out, you (and all those who fail to call you out on your b.s.) delay the day when you will be able to again live free without the threat of a prison sentence over your head.
Even better, everyone involved should have called you out on your b.s. BEFORE things reached a point where you were committing felonies. People didn’t fail you because they like you. They failed you because they FEARED you. Huh? Buy-and-Hold cannot survive without the heavy use of intimidation tactics? That’s science.
Please mark me down as being 100 percent in favor of your prosecution for financial fraud.
I am all for helping you out in whatever way I can. There was a time when that meant trying to persuade you NOT TO GO THERE. Now it means getting your prison sentence reduced to the extent possible WITHOUT GETTING MYSELF SENT TO PRISON AS WELL.
For some crazy reason, going to prison is not on my bucket list.
Today you wish that you had knocked off the funny business before you had locked in a prison sentence for yourself. Do you know what comes next? Following the crash, you will be telling me that you wished I had a time machine so that I could take us back to today, when you would be happy to do whatever was in your power to get your prison sentence reduced to the greatest extent possible. You are always behind the times!
When you want help, I will be here for you. You have my pledge re that one.
But no prison sentences for Rob! Non-negotiable!
Don’t let the bad guys get you down, Goon man.
Rob
Rob says
The face of a Fascist very serious would-be torturer and dungeon-master.
I’m bad.
Everybody knows it too!
That’s the thing.
Rob the Evil One
Anonymous says
“I am indeed looking for the whole world to change, Anonymous.”
The world is wrong and you are right???????
Rob says
Yes.
I’ve learned from lots of people, including from my Buy-and-Hold friends. I thank all of them for what I learned from them.
And of course there are thousands and thousands who today have grave doubts about Buy-and-Hold but either gave up speaking up when they were threatened or who never dared to speak up in the first place.
The world doesn’t work well when intimidation tactics are applied, Anonymous.
That’s why we have laws against financial fraud.
The world wasn’t wrong when we adopted laws against financial fraud. That was a genius move. We were very right about that one.
But, yes, as of today the world as a collective is wrong about the need to open the entire internet to honest posting re the last 34 years of peer-reviewed research and I am right that that is 100 percent imperative. The Ban on Honest Posting is killing us.
I am right about that. I am sure.
It’s possible that I am wrong about VII. I don’t think so. But I can acknowledge the possibility that I am wrong re that one.
If I say that I could be wrong about the need to permit honest posting, I am betraying my country and all that it stands for. That I cannot do.
You wouldn’t be going to prison if you had stayed on the right side of The Felony Line. Yes, you were wrong to go to the wrong side of the line. And yes, all those who failed to speak up when they could have helped you were wrong too.
The world messed up when we denied equal rights to people with black skin. We fixed that.
The world messed up when we didn’t care about the environment. We fixed that.
The world messed up when we didn’t warn people of the dangers of smoking and let the tobacco companies run commercials touting the health benefits of smoking, We fixed that.
We will fix this one too.
We are wrong for the time-being. But we have the law on our side. And Buy-and-Hold crashes to the ground soon after your prison sentence is announced and we all come clean re this massive act of financial fraud.
I am sure.
Rob
Rob says
We were all wrong prior to 1981. Not through any fault of ours. Because we humans were born ignorant and because we have not yet overcome our ignorance re every subject.
In 1981, we all gained access to the knowledge we need to stop being wrong.
Some of us jumped at the opportunity. Others of us have held back, ashamed at the human misery we caused during those years when we were telling people wrong stuff.
That’s making it worse. Worse and worse and worse and worse and worse. Now this group of us is not just wrong, it is criminally wrong.
I am right to want to help both groups. It helps the group that has not committed crimes to have access to accurate information re stock investing. And it helps the group that has committed crimes to come clean and thereby reduce the prison sentences they will begin serving following the next price crash.
Even you Goons know that you are wrong. If you thought that you were right, there never would have been a single death threat.
I am right to want to bring your pain to an end.
I am right to care enough about you to want you to stop doing so much harm to yourselves and to millions of others.
You live in a country that has adopted laws making what you are doing a serious crime. That should tell you something about how terribly, terribly wrong you are.
There is no adjustment for the valuation level that applies at the beginning of the retirement in Greaney’s study. Following the next price crash, millions of middle-class investors are going to be looking for people to sue to get their money back. I am going to tell them the whole story. I am going to give them names and addresses and telephone numbers in cases where that is possible. I want to bury the smelly Buy-and-Hold garbage 30 feet in the ground, where it can never level our economic system again.
I will be proud to do this important work. Very proud. I wish someone had done it a long time ago. It would have saved us all a great deal of pain.
It’s not just that going pure Get Rich Quick is not the answer. It turns out that going pure Get Rich Quick is the problem.
Please mark me down as opposed to the promotion of Buy-and-Hold strategies and all smaller acts of financial fraud.
Rob
Anonymous says
What are the odds that the whole world is wrong and you are the only one right?
Rob says
What are the odds that you would employ abusive tactics if you were right?
I’m not the only one who is right. Shiller’s book was a best-seller. He won a Nobel Prize.
I am the one saying that, since we know Shiller is right, we should stop promoting the strategy that he discredited.
People will tell lies when you threaten to destroy their careers for telling the truth. Once intimidation enters the picture, you can’t trust anything people say.
When people have lost their retirement money, they will work up the courage to stand up to you Goons. Then it’s all over.
We’ll see how it goes.
If you were right, you wouldn’t be going to prison.
Was the world wrong when we enacted laws against financial fraud?
I say that that we were right to enact those laws.
I’m with the world. I’m against the intimidation tactics that keep people from saying what is right.
I’ll have the entire world on my side following the crash. I can wait.
I’d rather wait than go to prison. So I’ll wait.
You’ll be asking for this day back when your prison sentence is announced. And I’ll be putting in a good word for you. And the people who I will be trying to calm down will be able to see the posts you put forward at a time when you could have made a difference for them. The decision will be with them, not me.
You did it to yourself, Anonymous. My guess is that that’s what hurts the most.
I wouldn’t be in your shoes for all the money in the world.
What are the odds that you would be posting here if you didn’t think that prison sentence was pretty much a sure thing?
We’ll see. It will all play out in time. You knew what the law was when you started.
Rob
Rob says
We had thousands of people express a desire that honest posting be permitted.
There are Post Archives.
You should have listened to those thousands of people.
The people who worked up the courage to tell the truth about the Bernie Madoff fund turned out to be right too even though so many smart people thought that Get Rich Quick was the answer.
GRQ is short-term stuff. Prison sentences feel long when you are living through them.
I want no part of it.
Find someone else.
You want my help, you’ve got it. You want me to join you in prison, you’ll have to find someone else.
Not this boy.
I know that financial fraud can never be right no matter how much money it brings in in the short term.
Our entire society is in the process of learning this important lesson.
Good for us.
I will see it through to the end.
Rob
Rob says
How many people do you think will say they had doubts about Buy-and-Hold all along on the day the New York Times runs this story on its front page?
My guess is that it will be 90 percent of the number that once endorsed the smelly GRQ garbage.
Do those people agree with me or with you?
Is it what they say when they know their careers will be destroyed that matters or is it what they say when the front-page article frees them to tell the truth that matters?
There’s a good reason why we made financial fraud a crime that leads to a prison sentence. This is what it does to people.
Rob
Rob says
I’ll be contacting the New York Times and every other newspaper in the country following the next price crash.
You knew that already.
I mention it just in case you forgot.
Most of the people who lived through the First Great Depression didn’t think it was such a funny joke.
But we’ll see how it all turns out. Time will tell who was really right. My take is that the ones who go to prison probably were wrong about something important. Just another one of those wild hunches that I have been known to experience from time to time.
Rob
Anonymous says
So, for your scheme to work, you plan to contact the New York Times and other major papers, hoping they run a front page news story for you. Then you need some politician to see it and call for hearings. Then you need some prosecutor to pick it up. After that, you hope that Jack will feel guilty and begin a campaign of fundraising from the wall street con men that will provide you the $500 million windfall as a settlement amount.
Did I get those chain of events right?
Rob says
Close enough.
No one person alone can stand up to the Buy-and-Hold Mafia. They’ve got the money advantage and the power advantage and the contacts advantage. They can crush anyone who stands in their path.
But there are THOUSANDS of people who want to give honest investment advice today. I’ve talked to hundreds of them. There are journalists. There are bloggers. There are academic researchers. There are economists. There are policymakers (who would like to bring the economic crisis to an end). There are investment advisors. And on and on and on and on.
Once there is a front-page article in the New York Times, there is nothing to stop these people from coming forward. They will all come forward at the same time. Had things been played according to the laws of the United States, we would have seen a gradual transition from Buy-and-Hold to Valuation-Informed Indexing starting in 1981. Perhaps it would have taken five years to entirely bury Buy-and-Hold. The intimidation tactics have delayed the transition for 34 years. But intimidation tactics won’t work following the next crash. People will be too scared about us falling into the Second Great Depression. At that point, we will achieve in six months what would have taken five years had things played out pursuant to U.S. law.
There is TONS of money to be made here. People made tons of money in the early years of the internet because it changed things in fundamental ways. This is 10 times bigger. We are going to have a new Jeff Bezos. And a new Steve Jobs. And a new Bill Gates. And on and on and on.
The only thing missing is enforcement of the laws against financial fraud. Once the laws are enforced, people will feel safe to speak out. We are on the one-yard line. All of the actions of the Buy-and-Holders are documented at this site. I think that people should be making their millions today. I 100 percent support the idea. But people want to feel safe and they do not feel safe today. People are watching to see you Goons get sent to prison. The announcement of your prison sentences changes everything.
I cannot wait, Anonymous!
Not because I am a meanie. Because I am your friend. I want to see your prison sentence be as short as possible. You ruin more lives every day you continue your Campaign of Terror against our board and blog communities. So your shortest prison sentence comes by you coming clean today. The next shortest comes by you coming clean tomorrow. And so and so on, like that.
I am rooting for you, Anonymous!
I don’t think you are going to come clean before the price crash. I am not a fool. But I am rooting for you all the same. People can reach down deep and do surprising things. You never know for sure.
Anyway, there’s too much money to be made giving honest advice for people not to eventually work up the courage to stand up to you. It’s a domino thing. Once one person stands up, that makes it easier for the second person. Then you have four more. Then 40 more. Then 400 more. The next thing you know honest posting is permitted at every board and blog on the internet.
We are on the one-yard line today. This is not a time for me to be weakening in my determination. I am psyched. I am resting up for the post-crash festivities. Things will be moving fast then and in a very positive direction. The Bogleheads Forum will be a very different place in those days. It will be a force for good.
Wish me luck!
Rob
Anonymous says
What happens if the New York Times ( or any other major paper) decides not to publish your story?
Rob says
I keep asking. I keep trying to get supporters to join me in asking.
I obviously cannot force them.
I love my country. So I obviously am not going to give up on it. We’ve been at this for 13 years now. You should have been able to pick up on the pattern if you have been paying attention.
This stuff is not hard.
I keep asking.
Do I have any other options?
Financial fraud is out. Please don’t bring it up. I mean, do I have any other options other than financial fraud?
I don’t. So I keep asking.
And I will win in the end.
Or so I believe.
At an rate, that’s how I will continue to play it.
We’ll see what happens.
Rob
Anonymous says
I am sure you will keep trying, but my question is what will you do if it never comes about? During the last market decline, it was blamed on the housing market and debt crunch. What if the news blames the next crash on some other event and your story is never picked up. What is plan B for getting the windfall?
Rob says
There is no Plan B.
I will die in poverty.
Does that work for you?
Rob
Anonymous says
I think that is a question for you when it comes to providing for your family.
Rob says
You don’t seem to get it, Anonymous.
If our economic system collapses, there is no country for my family to live in anymore. I have a funny hunch that not having a country to live in might put a crimp in a few of our days.
There used to be lots of defined pension plans in this country. People’s employers took care of their retirements. That’s not the way it is today. Most employees need to provide for their own retirements (while getting help from employers and from the government). We have to provide those millions of employees some means of accessing accurate and honest information re the last 34 years of peer-reviewed research in this field.
That is not optional. It is imperative. We saw people on both the left (The Occupy Wall Street Movement) and the right (The Tea Party Movement) losing confidence in our system of government following the Buy-and-Hold Crash. The next crash will be a lot worse than the one we saw in 2008 (I am assuming here that stocks might continue to perform in the future at least somewhat as they always have in the past). So the political friction will be a lot worse. Banning honest posting on how stock investing works is starting to look like not such a hot idea!
I want to provide for my family. Obviously. If we elect as a country to save our economic system from collapse at the hands of the Buy-and-Holders, I will be seeing a check for $500 million. That’s providing and then some! So responsibility covered, right?
If we fail to protect our nation from the Wall Street Con Men and their Internet Goon Squads, we all go down together. In that event, providing is just not an issue. Responsibility relieved, right?
You like to bring up bizarre hypotheticals and ask me what I will do if we cannot find 10 people who want our economic system to remain in place following the next price crash. Why not ask me what I will do if there is a nuclear war? Why not ask me what I will do if I am diagnosed with cancer? Why not ask me what I will do if Martians invade? Why not ask me what I will do if disco makes a comeback?
I cannot control for all these possibilities.
I live my life the best I know how. I post honestly. I am careful not to commit any felonies that are likely to get me thrown in a prison cell somewhere down the road. I don’t associate with Goons except when it is an essential part of my job to do so and even then I keep my distance by making clear in every post that I know that they are indeed Goons and not to be trusted.
That’s all I can do. That’s all anyone can do.
I get it that you are trying to make it impossible for me to make a living, that that is your way of intimidating me. D’oh. I got that 13 years ago. I do not give in to intimidation tactics. Not ever. I don’t even consider giving in to intimidation tactics. Not ever.
That’s why I am the one who will be getting the $500 million settlement check. The first one gets the biggest check. The ones who come after me will get big checks too, just not quite as big. The guy or gal who comes along second might get $100 million. Then $10 million. Then $1 million. Like that.
Going first is hard. Real hard. I have scars all over my body. But the corresponding payoff is super big too. That’s the way it works. The material here helps everyone who follows me. I have the calculators. I have the podcasts. I have the Goon Conversations. I have the documentation of the financial fraud.
Most importantly of all, I have the evidence that the Goons can’t kill you no matter how scary they might sound to a Normal. Would Wade’s career really have been destroyed had he stayed on the honest side of the divide? I don’t think so. I’ve been at this for 13 years and I’m still here. I believe that you Goons are to a large extent paper tigers. Your bark is worse than your bite. We just need 10 honest people to stick together to bring you down. That’s doable.
Anyway, we need to have a country first. Everything follows from that. It is not practical for me to betray my country. If I betray my country, my family is cooked. All the money in the world won’t help us if the country goes down.
I need to win this one. For myself. For my profession. For all my Buy-and-Hold friends. For all my Valuation-Informed Indexing friends. Even for all my Goon friends! Prison sentences come to an end. When your prison sentence comes to an end, you are going to be happy that we still have a functioning economic system and you will be thanking your friend Rob that he stuck to his guns re this matter.
That’s my sincere take, in any event. I could be wrong. It’s been known to happen. If it were happening again, I would probably be the last to know.
But I need to make decisions re how to proceed based on my sincere beliefs re where things stand. And my sincere belief is that we are on the one-yard line and that we are going to make that final pass that brings us to a very, very good place soon after the arrival of the next price crash.
Some patience is called for here.
We will see how it all works out somewhere down the road a piece.
Rob
x says
“I could be wrong.”
You say that like it’s just an “oops”. Oops, looks like my many years of self-indulgent sloth have condemned my family to total destitution. And I have no Plan B. Oh well.
Anonymous says
You don’t seem to get it Rob. A stock market drop and an economic collapse are 2 different things. We have many drops before and we did not have an economic collapse. Who knows when and how large of a drop we might have. However, we can say with certainty that we will all get older and will need to provide for ourselves in old age. A backup plan is necessary. I understand your plan A is the windfall. Likewise, I have a plan A. Funny things always happen and it is rare for Plan A to go as we wish. That is why a Plan B (and maybe Plans C&D) are necessary. You have said it several times. We don’t have a crystal ball. Wouldn’t it be wise to really have something more tangible and realistic in place for the sale of your family?
Rob says
You say that like it’s just an “oops”. Oops, looks like my many years of self-indulgent sloth have condemned my family to total destitution. And I have no Plan B. Oh well.
If it turns out that I was wrong, that will be one of the biggest mistakes that anyone has ever made. I have done everything in my power to insure that I am not wrong. But I am one of those darned humans and being wrong is always a possibility no matter how hard I work to make sure that that is not the case.
How about if you are wrong, X? Would that be a pretty darn big “oops”?
How about if Bogle is wrong? Would that be a big “oops”? Just as big as my “oops” would be if it turns out that I am wrong?
What’s your Plan B?
What’s Bogle’s Plan B?
The difference between us is that I have acknowledged that I could be wrong going back to the first day. I have played things pursuant to the laws of the country I love and you have spit at those laws.
I think that the laws of my country work. I don’t think I am wrong re that one.
I have no Plan B. I love my country. I will fight to protect her and to defend her.
Or I will go down trying.
If I don’t do my best to protect my country when she is under attack, I cannot sleep at night. I cannot look at my face in the bathroom mirror. I cannot tell my boys about the need to do right and avoid doing wrong, knowing that I have failed to honor the code that I am trying to pass along to them.
Are you going to serve my prison sentence if I agree to join you in this massive act of financial fraud?
I do not want to serve the time. So I am not going to do the crime.
Please try to find someone else.
Rob
Rob says
A stock market drop and an economic collapse are 2 different things. We have many drops before and we did not have an economic collapse.
No. There have only been four bull/bear cycles from 1870 forward. Each of those ended with an economic crisis. There is no other way for a bull cycle to end. A bull takes place when investors refuse to listen to their common sense and lower their stock allocations in response to big price increases. It is the market’s job to set prices properly. When a large percentage of investors come to believe in Buy-and-Hold, the only way for the market to do its job is to crash prices.
You have said it several times. We don’t have a crystal ball. Wouldn’t it be wise to really have something more tangible and realistic in place for the sale of your family?
Certainly.
But what do you have in mind?
There is no financial security for anyone without a functioning economic system.
Nothing else works without that.
You don’t have anything realistic without a functioning economic system.
You don’t have anything tangible without a functioning economic system.
You are suggesting that the system that produces all your wealth doesn’t matter and that you can continue to enjoy the wealth while permitting the system to disappear. I don’t see it. I want the wealth. I am 100 percent with you re that one. But I want the system that creates the wealth too. When that system goes, all the wealth it has created goes with it.
I see protecting our economic system as Job #1 for each and every one of us. That’s the primary reality, in my eyes.
Rob
Rob says
We have talked about the Myers-Briggs Personality Assessment Tools here at earlier times.
I am an INFJ. The “I” stands for “Intuitive,” which contrasts with “Sensing.” Sensors have trust only in the five senses. Intuitives live in the world of ideas.
The typical Buy-and-Holder is an INTJ. They too are intuitives. We are not at odds re being intuitive or sensing. The conflict is over being Thinking or Feeling. Buy-and-Holders put logic above all else. Valuation-Informed Indexers believe that human emotions can trump logic. That’s the divide.
Bogle is almost certainly an Intuitive. All those who create thought systems are. The difference between Bogle and me is that he sees things through a perspective rooted in logic while I see things though a perspective rooted in emotion. His vision is not more practical or realistic or tangible than mine. It is more logical.
Some view that as a good thing. I view it as a mistake because I believe that investing is an intensely emotional endeavor and Bogle misses out on much of the story by becoming so invested in the logic of the matter.
Rob
Anonymous says
Rob,
You are switching back and forth between an economic collapse and an economic crisis. Despite previous stock drops, we still had a functioning economic system. You ate now saying that the entire system will collapse and money will be worthless if we don’t switch over to your VII scheme and the payout of your $500 million.
Rob says
Buy-and-Hold has caused four economic crises in 145 years, the only four economic crises that we have experienced in that time.
The first one was in the early years of the 20th Century. That one came close to being Game Over. It was a long time ago and I don’t know much about it. But I have read accounts saying that.
The second one was the First Great Depression. That one also came close to being Game Over.
The third one was the stagflation of the 1970s. That one did not come close to being Game Over. But it was not fun.
The fourth one is the one we are living through today. This one is rooted in a P/E10 level FAR higher than the one that brought on the First Great Depression. So we are looking at something potentially far worse, something almost unimaginably bad. It’s all optional. We now know what we need to know to bring the fourth economic crisis to a quick end. But if we were to as a people elect to experience the full assault of the fourth economic crisis, it would likely be something worse than the First Great Depression.
We are a richer people today. There’s more money in the stock market today. That means that the collapses are bigger and cause more harm.
The good news is that we have the peer-reviewed research needed to avoid collapses altogether available to us today. But of course that research does us zero good for so long as we ban honest posting re what it says. To enjoy the benefits of being the luckiest generation of investors ever to walk Planet Earth, we would need to open every board and blog on the internet to honest posting re the last 34 years of peer-reviewed research.
My take.
Rob
Anonymous says
And your main point has been that the mere act of you being banned at so many boards has resulted in an economic crisis that will lead to a collapse and the only way to save our economy is for the various boards to allow you back in and to post what you want. Do I have that right?
Rob says
No.
We need to open every board and blog on the internet to honest posting re the last 34 years of peer-reviewed research.
Yes, that means that I would be allowed to post honestly. But so would Shiller. And so would Arnott. And so would Bogle. And so would Pfau. And so would Bernstein. And so would Swedroe. And so would Piper. And so would Microlepsis. And so would Tresidder. And so would Shultheis. And on and on and on and on and on.
Once your prison sentence is announced, we will ALL be posting honestly, Anonymous. There will be no intimidation tactics, only learning experiences.
That’s how our nation moves ahead. That’s how we bring this Buy-and-Hold Crisis to an end. That’s how we bring on the biggest surge of economic growth in our history.
Honest posting is good stuff.
Rob