Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
Hyper-technical, as opposed to in any way a legal sense.
Anyone who continues to say that Buy-and-Hold is a research-backed strategy 33 years after the peer-reviewed research in this field showed that there is precisely zero chance that it could ever work for even a single long-term investor is guilty of financial fraud in the legal sense, X. I don’t think that those who held back from engaging in intimidation tactics will be prosecuted. But under a strict reading of the statute they are guilty of the crime.
You have stated precisely, on countless occasions, that Pfau, Bogle, Greaney, and all Goons everywhere are all going to prison.
I would say that Greaney and the members of his Goon Squad are at extremely high risk of going to prison. It is barely possible for me to imagine a scenario in which those who have posted in “defense” of Greaney on numerous occasions would not go to prison.
Pfau is at some risk. But I think there is a very strong chance that he will NOT go to prison. He was the first expert in this field to request corrections in the Old School studies. I believe that most people are going to feel sympathy for Wade when they hear his story.
I would say that Bogle is at more risk than Pfau but at less risk than the Greaney Goons. He is a giant. He is a hero to the middle-class. He has done more positive stuff than just about anyone else alive (I would rank Bogle second only to Shiller re the good he has done). But he also has permitted his name to be used at a board that permits posting by the sorts of individuals who have posted in “defense” of Lindauer and Greaney. My guess is that Bogle will not go to prison but I see it as a much closer call than it is with Pfau. I think that in the long run Bogle’s reputation will be restored and that he will go down in history as one of the true greats. That will certainly be the case to the extent that I am able to exercise any influence re this matter.