I’ve posted Entry #226 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s titled How Do Shiller’s Findings Change Our Thinking on What Stock Allocation Is Optimal?
Juicy Excerpt: There are some stunning words that appear on Page 37 of my copy of Jeremy Siegel’s Stocks for the Long Run. Siegel states that: “The recommended equity allocation increases dramatically as the holding period lengthens. The analysis indicates that, based on the historical returns on stocks and bonds, ultra-conservative investors should hold nearly three-quarters of their portfolios in stocks over 30-year holding periods. This allocation is justified since stocks are safer than bonds in terms of purchasing power over long periods of time. Conservative investors should have nearly 90 percent of their portfolio in stocks, while moderate and aggressive investors should have over 100 percent in equity. This allocation can be achieved by borrowing or leveraging an all-stock portfolio.” The table that appears on the same page as these words indicates that risk-taking investors with a 30-year holding period are best served by a stock allocation of 131.5 percent, according to the historical return data.
Could this be real?
Evidence Based Investing says
Off Topic –
You have previously mentioned playing Dominion with your boys. At what age were they able to play the game? I am looking for games to play with the family and Dominion is one that I am considering.
Rob says
Dominion is awesome. In enjoy it more than any other game that I have ever played.
I think my boy Robert might have been 9 when we got it (so Timothy would have been 12). Timothy took to it with ease; he has always been the best player because his mind is oriented towards math. The game does not on the surface appear to be about math. But the skill called for is to form rough ideas as to probabilities of many different outcomes so someone with intuitive math skills is generally going to do well. You don’t ever do actual calculations. But the one with the innate math skill will just see the better move to a greater extent than the one without it.
Robert might have struggled a little in the early going. But he caught on quickly enough. He became the expert at knowing what the various cards said and how they worked when teamed up with other cards. Perhaps it is pushing things a bit to include someone younger than 9. But I think that someone aged 9 or 10 can get it.
The game can be played quickly — it takes about 30 minutes, sometimes a bit longer but almost never beyond an hour. There is ENDLESS variety when you buy expansions. Every game is different and not in a superficial way. There are different TYPES of games depending on what cards you use (you use 10 in each game out of 25 in the base set and out of 236 if you own all nine expansions). That’s why it never gets boring.
You probably should start with the base set. That works fine in the beginning. If you play lots of games with just the base set, it will get boring after a bit. I would suggest Prosperity or Seaside as your first expansion. At that point, you will be able to figure out what to do on your own.
The DominionStrategy.com site is an amazing resource. They have articles on each of the cards. You can figure things out on your own. But it will take a lot longer that way. There are also lots of discussion threads at the BoardGameGeek.com site. There are more people at that site. But I find the discussion there a bit less sophisticated.
I vote strongly for going with Dominion. I now have to beg the boys to play with me. But I never tire of it. I could play one game every night for the rest of my life.
Rob