I’ve posted Entry #238 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called A Conversation With an Open-Minded Valuation-Informed-Indexing Skeptic.
Juicy Excerpt: Think about a casino. Players can win in ten pulls of a slot machine. That happens all the time. But players never win at 10,000 pulls of a slot machine. It takes times for the odds to assert themselves. So it is with stock investing. People who buy stocks at high prices can come out ahead for five years or ten years or even fifteen years. But they never end up ahead at the end of an investing lifetime. The odds are so heavily against investors who ignore price when setting their allocations that they eventually catch up to them.