Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site.
What did the recent Bogleheads posts on P/E 10s linked here not say? What exactly is the “peer-reviewed research” information Bogleheads won’t allow there?
1) The errors in the Old School safe-withdrawal-rate studies were not discovered when the Wall Street Journal wrote about them but 10 years earlier when a post reporting on those errors was posted to Motley Fool’s Retire Early board;
2) Two-thirds of the risk of stock investing is the result of the promotion of Buy-and-Hold “strategies” and the Ban on Honest Posting on the dangers of Get Rich Quick strategies supported by Jack Bogle and the other Wall Street Con Men;
3) By switching from Buy-and-Hold to Valuation-Informed Indexing, workers can realistically expect to be able to retire from five to ten years sooner than would be possible if they did not make that switch;
4) The “idea” that it is not necessary to practice price discipline when buying stocks was a mistake. There has never been even a tiny sliver of evidence anywhere in the peer-reviewed research suggesting that all investors need not always practice price discipline (long-term timing) when buying stocks;
5) There have been four occasions in U.S. history when the Wall Street Con Men were successful in persuading large numbers of investors that all the rules of stock investing might be stood on their heads and for the first time Buy-and-Hold might work well for one or two long-term investors in this or some other solar system. The first time that happened, we saw the first of four economic crises that we have seen as a nation. The second time, we saw the second economic crisis. The third time. we saw the third economic crisis. The fourth time, we saw the fourth economic crisis.
6) Jack Bogle pulled his “15 percent rule (the “idea” that it might be okay if investors lowered their stock allocations by only 15 percent when stock prices rose to insanely dangerous levels) out of his backside.
7) It was the promotion of Buy-and-Hold “strategies” that caused the economic crisis that began in 2008.
8) Robert Shiller predicted the economic crisis that began in 2008 in a book published in 2000 and explained why the economic crisis was inevitable unless we began telling millions of middle-class investors the truth about how the stock market works.
9) The stock market becomes a Ponzi scheme when stock prices reach insanely dangerous levels. There is now 145 years of historical return data showing this.
10) Many academic researchers and many investment advisors and many journalists and many bloggers want to tell the truth about stock investing but have been intimidated into silence by the brutally abusive tactics of the Wall Street Con Men and their internet Goon squads.
That’s all important stuff, Anonymous.
There are good reasons why as a people we elected to make financial fraud a felony, a crime calling for prison sentences for those found guilty of it.
Don’t let the bad guys get you down, old friend.