I’ve posted Entry #268 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called Chase Utley’s “Dirty” Slide and Robert Shiller’s “Dirty” Research.
Juicy Excerpt: Say that there is a range of opinion on how stock investing works that extends from “1” (which signifies that Buy-and-Hold is perfect in every way) to “10” (which signifies that Buy-and-Hold is truly dangerous because it makes it impossible for investors to keep their risk profiles constant). If we permitted a full range of opinions to be discussed and explored, most investors would probably end up holding opinions in the middle of the range. Most investors would see merit in Buy-and-Hold but would also maintain a healthy skepticism re its most extreme claims and would feel the same way about Valuation-Informed Indexing. That’s how I think things should be done.
That’s not how things are done today. Today, those holding opinions that range from “1” to “3” are welcomed at all boards and blogs and warmly invited to share their thoughts in great depth. “4”s are permitted. “5”s are tolerated, but just barely. Those holding opinions ranging from the “6” level to the “10” level are warned that they must censor themselves, and, if they fail to do so, they are banned.
We don’t know what we are missing when we don’t hear from the “6”s and the “7”s and the “8”s and the “9”s and the “10”s. Because we never hear them.