Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
There is zero need for market timing. Any investor can just use a buy, hold, rebalance strategy tied to systematic investing that takes very little effort and time and gives a low cost, tax efficient and superior process/outcome.
We disagree, Anonymous.
I certainly acknowledge that there are millions of good and smart people who believe as you do.
I do not. I believe that long-term timing is price discipline and that price discipline is what makes markets work. I believe that a market in which price discipline has been undermined becomes dysfunctional and eventually crashes, causing huge amounts of unnecessary human misery.
That’s the conflict.
I respect your sincerity on this issue and I respect the huge contributions that the Buy-and-Hold Pioneers made to our understanding of how stock investing works. I have zero desire to discourage people who believe as you do from expressing their sincere beliefs about stock investing in a clear and firm and unapologetic way.
But I insist on my right and on the right of all who believe as I do to express our beliefs in a clear and firm and unapologetic way as well. Fruitful discussion comes from the respectful expression of sincere differences of viewpoint.
The Buy-and-Hold Model is supported by the peer-reviewed research of Eugene Fama, who was awarded a Nobel Prize in economics for his work in this area. The Valuation-Informed Indexing Model is supported by the peer-reviewed research of Robert Shiler, who was awarded a Nobel Prize in economics for his work in this area.
There is not one academic school of thought re how stock investing works. There are two. Advocates of both schools of thought have a right to participate actively and honestly at every investing discussion board and blog on the internet. Any site owner who tries to trick his readers into thinking that there is only one legitimate school of academic thought as to how stock investing works is engaged in financial fraud. That has not been so for 34 years now and it is a tragedy that so many millions have been misled into thinking that that might still be the case.
That’s my sincere take re these terribly important matters, in any event.
I naturally wish you all the best that this life has to offer a person, my good friend.