I’ve posted Entry #284 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called Michael Kitces Writes an Article Showing That, in the Very Long Term, the Effect of Valuations Diminishes.
Juicy Excerpt: A number of years back, I founded a discussion board called “The Safe Withdrawal Rate Research Group.” John Walter Russell and I were at the time developing the five Valuation-Informed Indexing calculators that are today housed at my web site. John was producing new research relating to the VII concept on an almost daily basis. He published his research at the board and community members would ask questions about it and he would respond to them or in some cases produce new research to explore the questions. It was an amazing place!
John has never received the credit he deserves for the many powerful insights he developed on a host of investing strategy issues that had never been explored before. So I was excited to see an article recently published by Michael Kitces at his Nerd’s Eye View blog titled Should Equity Return Assumptions In Retirement Projections Be Reduced for Today’s High Shiller CAPE Valuation? The article explores several questions that John first looked at a number of years back and affirms and expands on his findings. Things are happening! We are getting to the place where we all deep in our hearts have long wanted to go, ever so slowly but ever so surely.