I’ve posted Entry #298 t0 my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called Why I Doctored the Numbers Generated By My Retirement Calculator.
Juicy Excerpt: The early version of the article contained a statement saying that the safe withdrawal rate can drop to as low as 1.6 percent when valuations are super high. At the last minute, I changed the wording to say what I say above, that valuations can drop as low as 2 percent when valuations are super high.
Huh? Calculators generate numbers. Numbers are hard, objective things. Either the correct number is 1.6 percent or 2.0 percent. I should know which it is since this is my calculator we are talking about. How could I be uncertain about which number to use?