Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for one of my columns at the Value Walk site:
The only person I see reporting numbers wrong is you. You like to tell people that their net worth a will drop 65% yet you have no clue as to what they hold.
Secondly, you have never allowed me or anyone else to post any numbers on your website as you delete them. You never allow the debate to ever start.
So, as I have proposed many times, how about we both post our numbers, returns and strategies and let the results speak for themselves.
My response above stands, Sammy.
What numbers are right and what numbers are wrong depends on whether it is Shiller or Fama who really deserves the Nobel prize they were both given. One of the two got things terribly wrong and hurt a lot of people by doing so (unintentionally — but still).
I tell people all the time that I could be wrong, that I have been wrong before and that, if it were happening again, I would in all likelihood be the last to know.
Have you ever heard Jack Bogle say something like that?
Given Shiller’s Nobel Prize, I believe that Bogle should be putting forward that statement in every speech he gives and in every article he writes. If Shiller’s research is legitimate, Buy-and-Hold is dangerous.
It works the other way too. If Fama’s research is legitimate, Valuation-Informed Indexing is dangerous. The difference is that I say that all the time and I have never once heard Bogle say it. I think we all should be working together to urge Bogle to start saying that.