Set forth below are the text of a series of e-mails sent to me on October 15, 2014, by Jackie, owner of the The Debt Myth blog, followed by my responses:
But first you have to get people to actually read those words. Rhetorical question: When the methods you’ve been using for a long time continue not to work, why keep using them? You really have nothing to lose by changing. I think it comes down to “do you want to be right?” or “do you actually want to get your message out and have it read by the people who could benefit from reading it?”
Jackie:
Your point is well taken.
I have NOT been successful at getting the word out.
I’m happy to try another approach.
I am not entirely sure what it would entail.
I am 100 percent happy to agree not to comment on guest blog entries.
I am 100 percent happy not to bring up any of the Goon stuff in guest blog entries, to discuss only the content-based stuff.
Does that do it?
Rob
I would also go with shorter posts (say 850 words or less) that are more scannable (see http://www.4syllables.com.au/resources/scannable-tips/ for tips) and a more conversational tone.
Jackie:
Those both make sense.
I am grateful for your help.
Rob
No problem, did you look at the Drop Dead Money stuff?
Jackie:
Yes, I looked at it.
The “four seasons” terminology is something that I strongly believe in. There’s a wonderful book called
“Stock Cycles” that uses that terminology. That is one of my favorite investing books of all time.
One point re which I suspect I would disagree with the Drop-Dead Money person is that I believe that it is stock crashes that cause economic recessions rather than the other way around. I have never heard anyone else say that it is stock crashes that cause economic bad times. But I do believe that.
The graphic at the link highlights more up times and down times than I would worry about. I take more of a big-picture approach. In the 140 years of stock market history available to us, there have been four bull/bear cycles. I don’t say that the smaller ups and downs pointed to in that graphic don’t exist, just that it is harder to predict the smaller ones and they don’t do nearly as much damage.
The general concept sounds right. In good times, people get carried away and come to believe that good times will never end. In bad times, people get carried away and come to believe that bad times will never end. The reality is that things cycle from one extreme to the other. The reality is in the middle.
Rob
Cool, I might have to check out that book.
Anonymous says
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/article/bogle-65-years-072016?opentranscript=true
$3.5 Trillion
Of course, it is all cotton candy nothingness, right Rob?
Rob says
Bogle permitted his name to be used in a blurb on Mel Lindauer’s book, Anonymous.
That’s a stone cold fact. There are Post Archives.
I love the guy. I rank him as the second most important investing analyst of all time. But it is a fact that he let his name be used to promote Lindauer’s book. People need to hear both sides of the story. So I tell both sides of the story.
In any event, I expect to be working closely with Bogle in the days after he comes clean following the next price crash. I’ll be able to look him in the eye at that time because he will know that I never played the yes man just to get a link from him or to get his name on a blurb for my book. I’ve been a true friend to Jack and I believe that he will prove to be a true friend to me in days to come (he already played a big helpful role by including words in his book that helped me to see the errors in the Old School retirement studies).
Great guy, greatly flawed guy.
Humans! Whachagonna do?
Please take good care.
Rob
Anonymous says
I like me Mel’s book as well. So what. You can choose to agree or disagree. Simple as that.
Rob says
There are responsibilities associated with putting one’s self forward as an investing expert.
One of those responsibilities is that you let people know when you learn that someone with whom you are associated is engaging in criminal behavior. Mel Linduaer has been using threats of physical violence and threats of career destruction to keep people “in line” at the Bogleheads Forum for many years now. Bogle knows about this. Bogle has been asked to take action. He has failed to do so.
I love Bogle. He is a hero of mine. But I have a responsibility to tell people about Bogle’s behavior in this regard. This 14-year cover-up of the errors in the Old School safe withdrawal rate studies is the biggest act of financial fraud in U.S. history. I will not have my name associated with it (except as the lead voice seeking to EXPOSE the massive act of financial fraud). I am not interested in joining you in prison, Anonymous.
I have said that there are things about Mel’s book that I like. There’s nothing wrong with that so long as I also call him out re his criminal behavior. Bogle has not called Lindauer out re his criminal behavior. Bogle is on the wrong side of the line.
My take.
We will see how it all plays out.
I wish you all good things.
Rob