Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for one of my columns at the Value Walk site, followed by the response of one of my Buy-and-Hold Goon friends:
We’ll have to wait and see how it all plays out, Sammy.
Shiller published his “revolutionary” (his word) research findings showing that valuations affect long-term returns in 1981. When a revolutionary advance is achieved, all existing strategies need to be updated. Can you name 20 changes that Bogle made to his Buy-and-Hold strategy upon his discovery of Shiller’s findings? Can you name 10? Can you name 5? Can you name 1?
We need to update Buy-and-Hold to reflect the last 35 years of peer-reviewed research in this field. This is important. Millions of people’s retirements are riding on it. When you update Buy-and-Hold to reflect the last 35 years of peer-reviewed research, you’ve got Valuation-Informed Indexing That’s the updated version of Buy-and-Hold that I have been writing about for 14 years.
When Bogle acknowledges the need for an update, all of the nasty stuff that you refer to above goes away. It is only the Buy-and-Holders who engage in this behavior. And there is no need for the behavior once the update is made.
We are all on the same side, Sammy. We all want the same things. We all believe in using the peer-reviewed research as a guide to how to invest. We all should be urging Bogle to make that update so that we can all begin enjoying the benefits of those last 35 years of research.
This is my sincere take re these terribly important matters, in any event.
I naturally wish you all the best that this life has to offer a person.
We have already seen it played out. Your retirement plan failed. Your predictions of a stock crash didn’t happen. Moving the goal posts is not a strategy. You are now close to 60 and getting a real job, instead of trolling the Internet, will be very difficult.
Bogle, and his followers, have had successful strategies. Your fairy tales won’t change history.