I’ve posted Entry #319 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called Three Scenarios for What We May See Following the Next Price Crash.
Juicy Excerpt: The third scenario is that we could see an economic hit strong enough to bring on a significant recession but not so strong as to bring on a Second Great Depression; there is a range of possibilities that follow from any P/E10 level so it is at least possible that we could avoid another Great Depression even in a bear market initiated by a P/E10 level of 44. The unlucky side of this generally lucky outcome might be that experts in this field would continue to hold back on the launching of a national debate re the implications of Shiller’s findings (out of embarrassment of the role that they played in delaying the national debate for so many years). In that case, we would likely see a more drawn-out recession, followed in time by another bull market and then of course another crash many years down the road.