Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
Shiller and Bogle are not in conflict. Shiller said that the market historically followed a pattern somewhat linked to valuations. That is not even close to saying that you can use that pattern to time the market and beat buy-and-hold. He has never said that. Only you say he said that.
If the market follows a pattern linked to valuations, then overvaluation is a real phenomenon and investors planning their retirements need to take valuations into consideration when calculating the safe withdrawal rate, Anonymous.
Financial fraud is a crime. It’s a felony. That means prison time. Not freakin’ interested. Not this boy.
Please try to find someone else.
My best wishes.