Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
How long should we wait for things to play out?
You can wait as long as you please, Anonymous. Or you can not wait at all if that’s your preference. You decide for you. No?
I am going to wait for so long as I believe that the Greaney retirement study (and other Buy-and-Hold retirement studies) lacks an adjustment for the valuation level that applies on the day the retirement begins and that there is 35 years of peer-reviewed research showing that such a valuation adjustment is required to get the numbers right. If I ever came to doubt either of those things, I of course would say so and then I would not be waiting for anything anymore.
For so long as I believe those two things, I would be committing a felony (financial fraud) by leading people to believe that it is my view that they don’t matter. Going to prison is not high on my bucket list. So, for so long as I believe those two things, I will wait until every investing discussion board and blog on the internet is opened to honest posting on safe withdrawal rates and scores of other critically important investment related topics or until my beliefs re these matters change. I don’t see that I have a choice. And I of course decide for me just as you decide for you.
I naturally wish you all the best things that this life has to offer a person regardless of how long you elect to wait. Take good care, old friend.