Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for one of my columns at the Value Walk site:
What you stated at the last election with Obama and Romney is that the crash would occur within a year. You keep repeating the claims of a crash, yet your predictions are wrong time after time.
In the last week, we have seen yet another 2 articles that have come out explaining how you have been wrong. It was pointed out on your site and you decided to throw out the prison threat yet again, which shows your sign of desperation. This desperation is not surprising as you stopped working with only $400k, hoping your hocomania routine might result in a few bucks, but that failed as well.
Now all you are left with now is the same delusional rants.
My record re short-term predictions is poor, Sammy. This is entirely consistent with Shiller’s research. He says quite clearly that short-term timing doesn’t work. I of course noted at the time when I made those predictions that there is no reason to believe that anyone has the ability to make good short-term predictions and that I was only putting them forward for fun. It can indeed by fun and at times even educational to discuss possibilities but the same historical return data that shows that long-term timing always works also shows that short-term timing never works.
You Goons brought those two articles to my attention at my blog and I thanked you because they do indeed make important points. They of course do not say what you suggest here they say. Surprise! Surprise! I wrote briefly about those two articles in the comments section of my blog. I also have written columns that will appear here in future weeks exploring those two articles in considerable depth. They raise important points but of course in no way shape or form do they show that I am “Wrrong.’ I have a funny feeling that the authors of the articles would agree with me and not with you Goons if they were asked to provide their take re this matter.
I believe that a good number of you Goons will be going to prison following the next crash, Sammy. I have been saying that for years now, ever since you threatened to destroy Wade Pfau’s career if he continued to tell people about the peer-reviwed research paper that he and I wrote together. That paper shows that investors who follow a Valuation-Informed Indexing strategy can thereby reduce their investing risk by close to 70 percent. That’s huge. I think it would be fair to say that that paper is the most important research paper published in this field in the past 35 years. Every investor alive needs to know about it. People are going to be angry at you Goons following the next price crash and I believe that, when the New York Times report all that has gone on over the past 15 years, you will be going to prison.
We will have to wait to find out for sure, you know? I obviously have no power to send you to prison. And i obviously am not seeking such power. I intend to argue for a somewhat shorter prison sentence than most are arguing for at that time on grounds that you are suffering from cognitive dissonance and that that should be a mitigating factor. But it is your jury that will decide the length of your prison sentence, not me. That one is not my call.
I do think it is my responsibility to let people know my view re the matter when asked. The fact that we are even talking about prison sentences for Goons shows how far out of hand this matter has gone. When both Fama and Shiller were awarded Nobel prizes on the same day, the New York Times noted how odd it was that two economists saying entirely opposite things about how stock investing works were both awarded the highest honor in the field on the same day. Everyone who works in this field should be engaged in the debate to determine whether it is Fama or Shiller who is right. The continued viability of our economic system lies in the balance.
We don’t see that. The problem is that lots of wealthy and powerful people have built their careers around promotion of the Buy-and-Hold strategy. So they tolerate abusive posting practices that are banned by the published posting rules (and indeed by the laws of the United States!) of every site that I have ever visited. It’s a shame. The reality is that there are two academic models for understanding how stock investing works, not one. Had Bogle come out with a clear statement to that effect when he first learned about Shiller’s “revolutionary” (his word) research in 1981, you wouldn’t be headed to a prison cell today and I wouldn’t have to worry about you Goons following me from site to site with your abusiveness.
Things are what they are. I don’t like the abusiveness. I DO like you Goons as people. So I will continue to do what I can to get the story of what you have done exposed and thereby to bring the ugly side of this to a full and complete stop. Until we all see that wonderful dream come true, we will just have to try to step around the nasty stuff to the best of our ability and keep our eyes on the prize — the wonderful learning experience that thousands of my fellow community members (including some of the biggest names in the field) have told me they have enjoyed as a result of my 15-year effort to examine the practical how-to implications of Shiller’s revolutionary research findings in great depth.
I naturally wish you all the best that this life has to offer a person, my good friend.